Analysis of students’ perceptions of seafaring career in China based on artificial neural network and genetic programming

Abstract

Research indicates that the worldwide shortage of qualified seafarers has been due to the rapidly increasing world merchant fleet on the one hand and the difficulty of attracting and retaining people in the industry on the other. The paper argues that in the context of the Chinese shipping industry, the high “wastage” is one of the major contributors to the shortage. The aims of the research are to examine the motives of students studying nautical courses; identify the key factors affecting nautical students to choose seafaring career, and to predict students’ career choice behavior. The research finds that (a) those who had a clear sense of their future career when enrolled in the nautical studies tend to choose a seafaring career and remain active for a longer period of time; (b) high wage is the most important factor affecting students’ decisions to choose seafaring as a career; (c) prolonged separation from family, job opportunities ashore, and concern about children’s growth and education are among the top three factors for students not to choose a seafaring career or to quit it early; and (d) nautical students’ career choice behaviors can be predicted through the use of artificial neural network (ANN) and genetic programming (GP) with five rules being generated. This novel methodological approach, a combination of ANN and GP, has been proven to be effective in analyzing complex variables and in generating rules.

Notes

^1. Assuming the manning level of officers/engineers is eight per vessel (captain, three deck officers, chief engineer and three other engineers). Under 3:1 arrangement, 10–11 (10.667 to be precise) officers/engineers are required to maintain normal operation of one vessel while under 1:1 arrangement, the total number of officers/engineers to operate one vessel becomes 16.

^2. This includes major maritime universities such as Dalian and Shanghai Maritime Universities, Jimei University, etc., mariners colleges such as Qingdao Ocean Shipping Mariners College, and other “ocean-related” universities that provide maritime courses such as Dalian Ocean University, and many more local education and training institutions.

^3. There was an observed retirement peak during 2000–2008. Approximately 11 000 seafarers retired every year, among which about 30% were officers/engineers. There has also been an increasing number of officers/engineers participating in the international seafaring labor market.

^4. A search of literature in the Maritime Policy & Management for the period 1995–2011 found 28 papers being related to seafarers.