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Circumpolar nations face both challenges and opportunities as climate change opens access to the Arctic, bringing increased traffic – passengers and cargoes – into the region. The economic development accompanying the increased access raises operational and policy issues that require both individual responses by, and close collaborative and cooperative approaches among industries, national governments, and local communities. Many of these issues are shipping, transportation, and regional-related requiring the development of new infrastructure, and effective and innovative management, regulatory and governance approaches. Indeed, there are just so many topics that we, as scholars, are expected to address by bringing together researchers and key practitioners, and public policymakers, all of whom possess expertise in the various modes of transportation, in the regulatory and jurisdictional areas that affect each mode, in the impacts of economic development on local communities, and in the policy implications for shipping, transportation, and regional management of the increasing access engendered by climate change. However, the Arctic is highly complex in terms of economic development and diversification, environmental sensitivity, and accessibility. Thus, it is necessary to have a greater dialogue among researchers, practitioners, policy experts, and commentators from different sectors within the Arctic, for instance, shipping, transport, legal, insurance, to name but a few.
This special issue (hereinafter called ‘the issue’) sets aside the question of mitigation of climate change, and takes as its starting point that climate change is occurring, that it cannot be, in the near term, reversed, and that, through reduction in the Arctic ice pack, will result in increased economic development and thus a consequent increase in traffic in and through Arctic waters. Increases in resource extraction, tourism, movement of goods in and out of Arctic communities, traffic between Europe and Asia, and traffic to and from North America via Arctic waters, will all be affected by, and contribute to, these changes. It further takes the position that it is absolutely necessary to manage these developments for the good of all Arctic nations and the citizens of northern areas in the circumpolar region so as to allow them to develop resilience and to benefit from these developments. While an increase in maritime traffic is the first thing that comes to mind in consideration of Arctic climate change, it is clear that other transportation modes will also be affected. Also, the new economic development that inevitably follows climate change will generate more traffic via road, rail, and air. Accordingly, it focuses on the transport-related economic, commercial, management, and policy implications of the warming of the Arctic. It explores the impacts of climate change on the private, public, and non-profit sectors, examining the way increased commercial activity will require all sectors to adapt their supply chains for the changing climate in the northern regions.
The issue aims to bring together researchers and other stakeholders who have expertise in Arctic and northern transportation, and to have them share their knowledge of development issues in the Arctic. We strive to identify the key challenges in the development of northern and Arctic transportation and examine how they can be effectively addressed, examine the potential for positive and negative ‘feedback loops’ from Arctic warming, create a basis for future collaboration among scholars and practitioners in the field, and develop assessment techniques to assist stakeholders in choosing efficient and environmentally-friendly approaches to develop Arctic shipping, transportation, and regions.
Based on such objectives, the issue catalyzes the creation of long-term, self-sustaining research networks that strengthen the ability to share developing knowledge, experience and insight on Arctic shipping, transportation, and regional development to researchers, policymakers, and practitioners around the world. It is vital that the issue can catch the attention of many, if not all, of the stakeholders involved . Hence, the intended audience for the issue comprises other stakeholders who wish or need to learn more about these issues, such as journalists, policymakers, or residents of northern communities. Also, they include analysts and decision-makers in the development of operational, policy and regulatory approaches to Arctic transportation, as well as community and aboriginal leaders whose citizens are affected by changes in the Arctic economy.
It is important to emphasize what the issue is about. Among the eight papers, the first four investigate the potential and development of Arctic shipping from the macro perspective, including key criteria for ship operators to decide on whether or not to use Arctic shipping routes, the potential risk factors, the environmental and implications, and the legal aspect. The last four papers focus on more specific topics, including the impacts of Arctic shipping on Norwegian economy and ports, the possibility of Northern Sea Route (NSR)/Suez Canal Route (SCR)-combined container service on the Asia-Europe Lane, and the impacts of the Arctic on bulk and liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipping. Similarly, it is important to point out the topics that the issue does not address. First, the issue does not address the ‘land’ side of Arctic shipping. Being a key component of the supply chain, Arctic shipping can become a feasible alternative only if it is well-supported by other transportation modes, notably land connections, which are, hitherto, still in its embryonic stage of development. Second, the articles in the issue overwhelmingly focus on NSR, while other areas (e.g. the Northwest Passage) are still largely overlooked. Third, the issue still largely treats Arctic shipping as part of the ‘transportation and supply chain system’ rather than part of the ‘regional system.’ The main attention still focuses on stakeholders (e.g. ship operators, underwriters) who are not located in the Arctic. Stakeholders that live/are based in the Arctic (e.g. indigenous population) are not investigated. The details of these relatively untouched topics are explained in Ng, A.K.Y., Andrews, J., Babb, D., Lin, Y. and Becker, A. (2018): ‘Implications of climate change for maritime shipping: opening up the Arctic seas’. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change (vol. 9, no. 2, e507, doi: 10.1002/wcc.507). We believe that the issue serves as an ideal platform to encourage further research.
The rest of the editorial briefly introduces the papers. In the first paper, Tseng and Cullinane identify the key criteria that influence the decisions of shipping operators with respect to using Arctic shipping routes. The Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is applied to rank four potential criteria (‘economic,’ ‘technical,’ ‘political,’ and ‘safety’ factors) and respective sub-criteria. The results suggest that, on aggregate, ‘economic’ is the most important category of influential factors, followed by ‘safety,’ ‘technical,’ and ‘political’ factors.
In the second paper, Fu, Yan, Zhang, and Zhang identify potential risk influencing factors (RIFs) for the Arctic Maritime Transportation System from human, technical (ship), environmental and organizational aspects. The AHP method is used to analyse the hierarchical relationships and calculate the relative importance of the selected RIFs. The authors argue that the identified critical RIFs can be used to propose certain guidance for the operations of crews on board, ship owners and ship managers.
In the third paper, Zhu, Fu, Ng, Luo, and Ge estimate the market shares of different transport modes and alternative shipping routes for the container transport market between Europe and Asia, and the resulting environmental costs. The authors argue that NSR can be a viable option under the status quo. However, its environmental costs tend to be higher than SCR due to small ship size and low load factor in the present. Thus, the development of NSR would lead to worse environmental outcomes.
In the fourth paper, Fedi, Faury, and Gritsenko critically analyse the way the Polar Code helps, as a ‘tool box,’ the underwriters in their task for the emerging Arctic market. More than framing the navigation in Arctic waters, the Polar Code, through the identification of hazard sources, is designed to mitigate risks in this area and to assist underwriters in assessing risks and insuring vessels. They conclude that even if the Polar Code is a comprehensive tool, certain insufficiencies remain, such as the absence of risk ranking which is key information that underwriters need.
In the fifth paper, Solvang, Karamperidis, Valantasis-Kanellos, and Song explore the potentials of the NSR as an alternative to the established SCR for shipping and potential benefits for the Norwegian economy and ports. Their study confirms that the NSR can be a viable alternative for shipping (especially for containers), compared to SCR, even though there are several costs and risks that might hinder its full potential.
In the sixth paper, Xu, Yang, and Weng propose a seasonal NSR/SCR-combined shipping service linking Shanghai and Rotterdam, using the NSR during the economical navigable window but using the traditional SCR at other times. The paper dynamically considers the sea ice extent in the model, which is believed to be more reasonable for the assessment of Arctic container shipping. Their results indicate that the NSR/SCR-combined Arctic container service can be more economical than the SCR, given the lower NSR tariffs.
In the seventh paper, Solakivi, Kiiski, and Ojala examine the extent to which the shipping costs of wet and dry bulk vessels compliant with the IACS Polar Class rules exceed those of vessels without an ice class. The results show that Polar Class compliant vessels could be up to three times more expensive to build than vessels without an ice class. Moreover, the respective increase in fuel costs may account for up to 150% given the additional engine power and the increased hull weight.
In the eighth paper, Shibasaki, Usami, Furuichi, Teranishi, and Kato investigate the economic feasibility of trading LNG via NSR and examine the potential impacts on the regional macro-economy and LNG import diversification. The authors found that (1) LNG shipping trade via the NSR could be economically feasible for Japan, (2) the use of the NSR contributes to Japan’s macro-economy but has a relatively small effect, and (3) the use of NSR significantly contributes to diversifying the LNG import portfolio.
The support from the University of Manitoba Transport Institute to the issue is gratefully acknowledged. Also, we thank the Editor-in-Chief, Prof. Kevin Li, Administrative Editor, Dr Wendy Shi, for their support and advice. Finally, we thank the authors for their contributions and reviewers for their insightful feedback to the issue.