Variables predicting the odds of failing to progress onto the second year of study for criminology students in a UK university

ABSTRACT

Globally, statistical analyses have found a range of variables that predict the odds of first-year students failing to progress at their Higher Education Institution (HEI). Some of these studies have included students from a range of disciplines. Yet despite the rise in the number of criminology students in HEIs in the UK, little statistical research has been carried out on this cohort. This paper reports on survey data gathered from three consecutive cohorts of first-year undergraduate Criminology students (n = 165) enrolled at a university in the North of England from 2014 to 2017. Twenty-five per cent (n = 42) of these students did not progress onto the second year of their programme. Binary logistic regression was carried out to identify variables that predict the odds of students failing to progress beyond their first year on their programme of study at their HEI. Results show that three variables positively indicated students failing to progress i) moving to study at their HEI, ii) thinking about dropping out towards the end of their first year and iii) being referred in assessments throughout the year (i.e. having to do assessments again because of grading below the pass-mark or non-submission). These findings can be used by HEIs to identify ‘at-risk’ students to implement safety nets of support throughout the whole of the students first year at university to decrease the odds of students not progressing with their programme of study beyond their first year.

KEYWORDS:

• Retention in higher education
• first year criminology students
• logistic regression
• predictor variables
• social and academic integration

Acknowledgments

The author would like to thank research assistants: Dr Matthew Durey, Jacob Donaghue and Elizabeth Dent.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Data availability statement

It is not appropriate to share the data as it contains non-anonymised data – participants and the location of the study are to remain anonymous, to comply with ethical standards.

Notes

1. These figures do not denote drop-out rates but completion rates of the survey at the different time-points. For example, some students completed the survey at the end of semester 2 but they did not complete it at the start of semester 2.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Nicola Roberts

Nicola Roberts is an Associate Professor of Criminology at the University of Sunderland. She has been teaching criminology students since 2007. She spent a decade as a personal tutor to new first-year criminology students and 4 years as undergraduate Criminology programme leader. She has carried out research into understanding how new students settle into studying criminology at university and the key variables related to this. Her other research interests are similarly centred on the student body, researching their experiences of interpersonal violence, and perceptions and strategies of safety, both on and off campus. Her recent research involves working with Campus Security to enhance students’ perceptions of safety on campus. To this end also, she has recently evaluated a bystander intervention. She analyses her data statistically and qualitatively.