Using Compact And Portable Function Minimization Codes In Forecasting Applications

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to show how direct application of some compact methods for finding the minimum of a non-linear function may be a useful strategy for business and economic forecasting problems, particularly if only limited computational resources are available. While conventional forecasting methods use minimization techniques implicitly, this paper proposes that they be applied more or less directly by the forecasting practitioner as a general technique which puts all models for forecasting within a common framework adaptable to new situations. As such, the aim is to provide a portable, practical tool for matiy problems. While the overall cost-benefit of this approach is still under investigation, it has worked well for some examples.

Résumé

Ce rapport montre comment l’application directe des méthodes compactes pour minimiser des fonctions non-linéaires peut contituer une stratégie utile pour les problèmes rencontrés dans le domaine de la prévision commerciale et économique. Cette approche est particuliérement avantageuse si on ne dispose que d’ordinateurs de capacité limitée. Alors que les méthodes traditionnelles de prévision emploient implicitement les techniques de minimisation, ce rapport propose qu’on les applique plus ou moins directement comme une technique générate qui englobe tous les modeles de prévision à l’intérieur d’un cadre commun qui peut s’adapter à des cas nouveaux. Aussi, le but consiste à foumir un outil portatif et pratique pour la résolution de plusieurs problèmes. Bien que l’analyse coût-bénéfice de cette approche ne soitpas complétée, les expériences jusqu’à présent sont encouragentes.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

John Nash

JOHN C. NASH holds a B sc in chemistry from the University of Calgary and a D PHIL in mathematics from Oxford. He worked in government and industry before joining the Faculty of Administration of the University of Ottawa in 1981. Dr Nash has published two books and a number of academic and popular articles covering many aspects of microcomputer use.

Mary Walker-Smith

MARY WALKER-SMITH holds a BA SC Honours in mechanical engineering from the University of Waterloo and an MB A from the University of Ottawa, She has been General Manager of Nash Information Services Inc. since 1984. Ms Walker-Smith is the author of several microcomputer software packages for specialized legal, financial, and scientific applications.