A contribution to the Malthusian debate

Abstract

Perhaps the most striking contrast in the field of contemporary population problems is to be found in a comparison between the fertility rates of the countries of the Western world and those of under-developed Asia and Africa. This contrast is probably of long standing, even though it has become more marked during the last half-century. In the West, fertility was limited by various means even before modem methods of birth-control became widespread. A reduction of fertility in the under-developed countries seems essential if they are to achieve an improvement of the material living standards of their poverty-stricken, ever-multiplying masses. The optimists hope that the historical development of Western countries will be repeated and that, thanks to the rise in the standard of living, the adoption of ‘Western civilised habits’ and the progress of democratic institutions, the increase of population will slow down even in those countries where it is now most rapid. The pessimists, most of whom are to be found perhaps among students of the social sciences, take a more sceptical view of the belief that there will be a repetition of an earlier pattern of historical development, in however modified a form.