On Locating and Characterizing Parameter Variation by the Mosumsq Test Statistic

Abstract

In modelling a system structure it is often important to test the constancy of the structural parameters. If the hypothesis of constant parameters is rejected we wish to characterize the parameter variation. In this paper we examine the usefulness of the MOSUMSQ test statistics for locating and characterizing the parameter variation in linear regression models. The means and the variances of the test statistics are given for non-random parameter variation. The observed path of the MOSUMSQ test statistics provides valuable knowledge about the time of the onset of the parameter change and whether it is instantaneous or gradual.

Keywords:

• structural change
• parameter variation
• MOSUMSQ test
• parameter characterization