Shewhart x-charts with estimated process variance

Abstract

Properties of the Shewhart X-chart for controlling the mean of a process with a normal distribution are investigated for the situation where the process variance Ó²must be estimated from initial sample data. The control limits of the X-chart depend on the estimate of Ó²and thus, unlike the case when Ó²is known, the X-chart is not equivalent to a sequence of independent tests. When Ó²is estimated the distribution of the run length is not geometric and cannot be characterized simply in terms of the probability of a signal at a given point. The average run length (ARL) for the X-chart is expressed in terms of an integral involving the normal cdf, and it is shown that the chart signals with

probability one, but the ARL may not be finite if the size of the 2 sample used to estimate Ó²is sufficiently small. In addition, certain bounds for the ARL are also derived. Numerical integration is use to show that the effect of using small sample sizes in estimating Ó²is to increase the ARL and the variance of the run length distribution

Keywords:

• Shewhart chart
• process control
• control chart
• estimated variance
• economic model
• average run length