Empirical bayes estimation in contingency tables

Abstract

In the estimation of cell probabilities from a two–way contingency table, suppose that a priori the classification variables are believed independent. New empirical Bayes and Bayes estimators are proposed which shrink the observed proportions towards classical estimates under the model of independence. The estimators, based on a Dirichlet mixture class of priors, compare favorably to an estimator of Laird (1978) that is based on a normal prior on terms of a log–linear model. The methods are generalized to three–way tables.

Keywords:

• Hierarchical prior
• independence
• log–linear models
• conditional independence
• shrinkage