Discriminant analysis with stratified prior probabilities

Abstract

This study investigates the use of stratification to improve discrimination when prior probabilities vary across strata of a population of interest. Sources of heterogeneity in prior probabilities include differences in geographic locale, age differences in the population studied, or differences in the time component of the data collected. The article suggests using logistic regression both to identify the underlying stratification and to estimate prior probabilities. A simulation study compares misclassification rates under two alternative stratification schemes with the traditional discriminant approach that ignores stratification in favor of pooled prior estimates. The simulations show that large asymptotic gains can be realized by stratification, and that these gains can be realized in finite samples, given moderate differences in prior probabilities.

Keywords:

• discriminant analysis
• prior probability
• logistic regression
• stratification