On semiparametric pivotal bayesian inference for quantiles

Abstract

In semiparametric inference we distinguish between the parameter of interest which may be a location parameter, and a nuisance parameter that determines the remaining shape of the sampling distribution. As was pointed out by Diaconis and Freedman the main problem in semiparametric Bayesian inference is to obtain a consistent posterior distribution for the parameter of interest. The present paper considers a semiparametric Bayesian method based on a pivotal likelihood function. It is shown that when the parameter of interest is the median, this method produces a consistent posterior distribution and is easily implemented, Numerical comparisons with classical methods and with Bayesian methods based on a Dirichlet prior are provided. It is also shown that in the case of symmetric intervals, the classical confidence coefficients have a Bayesian interpretation as the limiting posterior probability of the interval based on the Dirichlet prior with a parameter that converges to zero.

Keywords:

• pivotal posteriors
• sign test statistic
• consistent posteriors
• Dirichlet process