Predicting belief and belief change using a cognitive theory of argument and evidence

Abstract

This paper settles on a coherent mathematical description of the process of argument. Results show that the cognitive model typically explains between a quarter and a half of the variance in belief in an argument's claim, and a quarter of the variance in belief change. The most accurate results occur when a multiple regression equation is used to predict levels of belief in an argument's conclusion, and when stepwise multiple regression is used to predict belief change.