Projected impacts of global warming on cropping calendar and water requirement of maize in a humid climate

ABSTRACT

In this research, the influence of climate change on maize cultivation was investigated and then, the possible solutions for adopting this natural hazard in the coasts of Caspian Sea in Iran was assessed. Weather data were generated for the 2011–2100 period using a statistical downscaling model under different climatic scenarios. Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) was calculated using a Neuro-fuzzy inference system. Cop water requirement was calculated by multiplying ETo by crop coefficients. Increased cardinal temperatures during 2011–2100 led to shifting in the planting date backward by 10–26 days. In addition, the projected global warming has a considerable effect on the duration of the vegetative growth stage resulting in earlier harvesting. However, the duration of the reproductive stage is less affected. Despite the obvious reduction in the length of the growing season, crop water requirement will increase by 10.6–15.3% in the future due to 1.64–28.4% increase in ETo. However, changing the cultivation time may lead to 11.2–264.5 m³ ha⁻¹ water saving during the whole cropping cycle through affecting both ETo and the crop growth cycle. This result demonstrates that management of the maize cropping calendar can be an effective way to achieve sustainable agriculture under future climate conditions in the study area.

KEYWORDS:

• Climate change
• evapotranspiration
• general circulation model
• sowing date

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES).

Additional information

Funding

The authors would like to acknowledge University of Zabol for financing the project.