A simulation model for studying short and medium term food security issues in developing countries

The contribution of simulation models to planning for food security is discussed and references are cited for a number of existing models addressing short, medium and long term aspects of the food security problem. A new model is discussed which addresses short and medium term food security issues. This model enables the user to explore the effect of alternative import policies, reserve stock levels and logistical constraints upon operating costs and the probability of life‐threatening food “stockouts.” Adaptations of the model could be used to assist decision makers in planning their responses to food shortages in specific countries or regions.

Key words:

• Food security
• food policy
• simulation models