Using agricultural data for timely warning to prevent the effects of drought on child nutrition in Botswana

Data from agricultural reporting systems in Botswana for the period 1978–83 are combined with data from the Ministry of Health's clinic‐based nutritional surveillance system in a retrospective analysis to investigate the usefulness of agricultural indicators for timely warning of unusually severe child malnutrition due to drought. In the arable farming areas in eastern Botswana, deficits in an index of ground water sufficiency for maize growth during the growing season (January‐April) were associated with the deviation from trend in children's malnutrition (measured by weight‐for‐age) during the peak season for malnutrition, later in the year, across regions and over time. In arid Western Botswana, as well as the East, qualitative reports on the condition of cattle were also shown to be useful predictors of child malnutrition. Decisions on the allocation of resources for relief could be made early in the year, based on agricultural data, even before confirmation from clinic data is available.

Key words:

• Nutritional surveillance
• drought monitoring
• early warning
• Botswana
• Africa
• child malnutrition