Polarisation reversal in South Africa: how widespread is the trend?

Abstract

The differential urbanization model distinguishes between three processes in the evolution of urban systems on course towards equilibrium: urbanization, polarization reversal and counter-urbanization. Earlier studies have shown that parts of the South African society have clearly advanced beyond the urbanization phase and are currently either in transition towards polarization reversal or towards counter-urbanization. The objective of this study is to determine how advanced this transition is within the South African economic community. Using non-spatial study results as a backdrop, the study presents results of two spatial analyses to relate the non-spatial graphical analysis to geographical patterns, nationally and regionally. The spatial study allows one, on the one hand, to geographically determine how advanced the polarization reversal trends are and, on the other hand, to capture the likely continuing impacts of apartheid on current migration trends. Results of the two spatial studies indicate, first, that although a large part of the South African society has advanced beyond the urbanization phase, the transition towards polarization reversal is still in a relatively early stage and, second, that the deconcentration patterns are geographically selective with clear signs of the continued impact of previous apartheid spatial policies on redistribution patterns within the major metropolitan areas.

Keywords:

• urban system
• urbanization
• counter-urbanization
• polarization reversal
• differential urbanization

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.