The influence of extreme weather conditions on the magnitude and spatial distribution of crime in Tshwane (2001–2006)

ABSTRACT

This article examines the influence of extreme weather conditions on the magnitude and spatial distribution of violent, sexual and property crime in Tshwane, South Africa from 2001 to 2006. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) is initially used to identify whether there are significant differences in the mean amount of crimes (violent, sexual and property) committed on days stratified by temperature and rainfall extremes. Next, a spatial point pattern test is used to determine the spatial similarity of violent, sexual and property crime on temperature and rainfall days classified as low, random, and high. Results indicate a strong association between temperature and criminal activity, and a less significant association between rainfall and crime. The spatial distributions of all types of crime are found to differ significantly depending on the type of weather extreme observed. The results of this study has the potential to assist law enforcement agencies to better understand how weather affects crime patterns in urban areas in South Africa and develop and implement appropriate crime prevention measures.

KEYWORDS:

• Crime
• rainfall
• temperature
• spatial point pattern test
• Tshwane

Acknowledgments

The authors thank the South African Weather Service who provided climate data for this study, as well as the Crime and Information Analysis Centre (CIAC) of the South African Police Service (SAPS), who provided crime data for the study.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

1. In this study, we used the pre-2011 municipal boundary for Tshwane. This includes 371 neighbourhoods.In May 2011, the boundary for the city of Tshwane expanded to incorporate the Metsweding DistrictMunicipality in the east of the city.