An evaluation of age–sex distributions of South Africa's population within the context of HIV/AIDS

Abstract

Knowledge about the age–sex distribution of a population is valuable for planning and decision making as it is a determinant of the future development of the population. Various aspects of the age–sex distributions of the population of South Africa estimated by Statistics South Africa remain controversial. For example, at face value the 1996 census implies that the overall sex ratio dropped from 97 in 1970 to 92 in 1996 and 91 in 2001. The 1996 census results also imply that the proportion of peoples aged 0–4 dropped from 15 per cent in 1970 to 11 per cent in 1996 and 10 per cent in 2001. In an attempt to shed more light on these controversies this study evaluates the age–sex distributions from the 1996 census, using a novel approach, and also develops model age–sex distributions for South Africa as a means of evaluating age–sex distributions from the 2001 census, and future censuses and surveys in the country.

Acknowledgments

The author wishes to thank Statistics South Africa for providing access to its data for this study. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Statistics South Africa or the Human Sciences Research Council.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Eric O Udjo

Research Director, Epidemiology and Demography Unit, Social Aspect of HIV/AIDS and Health, Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC), Pretoria.