The employment effects of trade regimes and industrialisation policy in South Africa

This paper compares two studies which have estimated the employment effects of different trade regimes for South Africa. The differing results of these studies are important in terms of facilitating the choice among alternative trade strategies at a time when the economy is experiencing low growth and economic sanctions. The paper concludes that one of the studies is incorrect in its conclusions in that it falls to carefully define the problem being examined, leading to results which have limited applicability.

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Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Natal, Durban.

Honorary Research Fellow, Economic Research Unit University of Natal, Durban.