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A dynamic linear programming matrix is assembled in order to model the Southern African summer grain industry. Supply, demand and production risk, including interactions with production substitutes, are considered. The model is used to evaluate the possible structural effects of the farmer support programme (FSP) taking into account the interrelationships in grain markets in Southern Africa. The effects are evaluated under different marketing policies with respect to changes in land use, prices and labour requirements. A macro view is taken.
An effective FSP will lead to structural changes in land use, prices of products and labour requirements. The effect of the FSP on production, prices and labour will not only vary according to the success in changing over from subsistence maize production to commercial farming in the developing areas, but is also dependent on marketing policies in general. The interrelationships in agriculture and the economy emphasise the need for an overall policy plan.
Notes
Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Pretoria.