An economic analysis of family size decision making with reference to the developing areas of South Africa

Abstract

South Africa's annual population growth rate in the traditional sector is 2.9 per cent. This study identifies economic factors affecting family size choice to provide policy makers with a strategy for reducing fertility.

A neoclassical utility framework was used to analyse linkages between family size decisions and socio‐economic variables. Household utility for ‘child services’ and ‘standard of living’ was maximised subject to the resource constraints of time, labour and income. A demand curve for children was specified within a simultaneous model of family decision making. A stratified sampling technique was used to collect household data from Ulundi and Ubombo In KwaZulu. One hundred and seventy‐five women in three equal occupa‐tional strata were interviewed. The simultaneous model was estimated by two‐stage least squares regression analysis. Dummy dependent variables were estimated by probit analysis.

Child education, women's opportunity cost of time and formal market participation were negatively related to fertility, reflecting substitution from numbers of children (time intensive) to fewer, more educated children (less time intensive) as opportunity costs rise. Child labour was positively related to fertility. Strategies to reduce population growth rates should therefore include improvements in women's education and employment opportunities to raise their time costs, and time‐saving devices to reduce demand for child labour.

Notes

Graduate student and Professor respectively, Agricultural Economics Department, University of Natal, Pietermaritzburg. Financial assistance from the Human Sciences Research Council is gratefully acknowledged.