Determinants of return migration intentions: Evidence from Zimbabwean migrants living in South Africa

Abstract

This paper uses a dataset of Zimbabwean migrants living in South Africa to examine the determinants of the probability of their returning to their country of origin. It analyses migrants' return migration intentions using a logistic regression that examines 10 demographic and socioeconomic factors. Six factors – reason for migrating, the number of dependants supported in the home country, the level of education, economic activity in the host country, the level of income and the duration of stay in the host country – are found to be statistically significant determinants of the return migration intentions. The main policy implication of these findings is that the chances of attracting back skills are high if political and economic stability can be achieved.

Keywords:

• migration theory
• return migration
• Zimbabwean migrants in South Africa

Notes

¹ This author first reported partial results of this work in a 2010 UNDP Working Paper 11, ‘The Potential Contribution of the Zimbabwe Diaspora to Economic Recovery’, which he co-authored (see UNDP, 2010).