The dynamics of household dissolution and change in socio-economic position: A survival model in a rural South Africa

Abstract

This paper investigates household dissolution and changes in asset wealth (socio-economic position) in a rural South African community containing settled refugees. Survival analysis applied to a longitudinal dataset indicated that the covariates increasing the risk of forced household dissolution were a reduction in socio-economic position (asset wealth), adult deaths and the permanent outmigration of more than 40% of the household. Conversely, the risk of dissolution was reduced by bigger households, state grants and older household heads. Significant spatial clusters of former refugee villages also showed a higher risk of dissolution after 20 years of permanent residence. A discussion of the dynamics of dissolution showed how an outflow/inflow of household assets (socio-economic position) was precipitated by each of the selected covariates. The paper shows how an understanding of the dynamics of forced household dissolution, combined with the use of geo-spatial mapping, can inform inter-disciplinary policy in a rural community.

Keywords:

• household dissolution
• rural

JEL codes:

• Z13
• O12
• P25

Funding

The Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System was funded by the Wellcome Trust, UK [grant numbers 058893/Z/99/A, 069683/Z/02/Z, 069683/Z/08/Z], the University of the Witwatersrand, the South African Medical Research Council, and the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, USA.

Notes

⁵All household assets were counted in 2001, 2003, 2005 and 2007. These assets included the type of household structure, including its construction, access to electricity, water and sanitation. The asset set also included household transport, communication, power, appliances, livestock and equipment.

⁶Data obtained through verbal autopsies conducted on every recorded death in the study site. The verbal autopsy cannot reliably distinguish deaths to HIV and tuberculosis (poor sensitivity and specificity). Therefore, in our analysis, an adult death from HIV or tuberculosis is classified as a death due to ‘HIV and AIDS’.

⁷The AHDSS implementing verbal autopsies combine HIV and tuberculosis in high HIV prevalence settings because the verbal autopsy cannot reliably distinguish between the two, thus affecting sensitivity and specificity.