Expectation Formation Processes: Some Empirical Evidence From Survey Data

D J Marais* The first two authors are from the Graduate School of Business at the University of Stellenbosch, PO Box 610, Bellville7535, Republic of South Africa. The third author is from the Department of Statistics at the same institution.

E vd M Smit* The first two authors are from the Graduate School of Business at the University of Stellenbosch, PO Box 610, Bellville7535, Republic of South Africa. The third author is from the Department of Statistics at the same institution.

W J Conradie* The first two authors are from the Graduate School of Business at the University of Stellenbosch, PO Box 610, Bellville7535, Republic of South Africa. The third author is from the Department of Statistics at the same institution.

Abstract

Three expectations formation models are tested by means of log-linear models using observed entrepreneurial behaviour as manifested in the qualitative business surveys of the Bureau for Economic Research. The three formulations are (i) extrapolative expectations, (ii) adaptive expectations and (iii) an error-learning expectation formation model. Results are presented for ten variables for the total industrial sector and disaggregated into capital and consumer goods industries, business cycle phases and high and low concentration industries.

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Expectation Formation Processes: Some Empirical Evidence From Survey Data

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Expectation Formation Processes: Some Empirical Evidence From Survey Data

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