Saudi Arabia Walks the Tightrope

Abstract

Saudi diplomacy seems more active than ever. This has to do with three recent major regional developments: the summer 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, the violent clashes between Hamas and Fatah in the occupied Palestinian territories, and the Iraqi quagmire. In each of these, the role of Iran is difficult to overlook and this is troubling Riyadh. Yet Saudi Arabia has difficulty in responding to Iran's assertiveness: it wants to contain Tehran's ambitions, but at the same time it cannot allow itself to clash with it. As a result, it is treading a fine line.

Notes

¹ For the Fahd Plan, see http://www.knesset.gov.il/process/docs/fahd_eng.htm; for Crown Prince Abdullah's initiative, see Kostiner, “Coping with Regional Challenges” and “Saudi Regional Strategy”.

² Nonneman, “Determinants and Patterns of Saudi Foreign Policy”; and Aarts and Van Duijne, “The Saudi Security Environment”.

³ Trabulsi, “Saudi Expansion”; and AbuKhalil, “Characteristics of Saudi Role in Lebanon”.

⁴ Hersch, “The Redirection”; and Samuels, “Grand Illusions”.

⁵ Greg Gause, “Saudis Aim to Roll Back Iranian Influence”, Council on Foreign Relations (online), 16 March 2007 http://www.cfr.org/publication/12895/. The relaunch in April 2007 of the Abdullah peace plan should be seen in the same perspective; to date it has not been very successful.

⁶ Mahan Abedin, “Iran ponders aims of Saudi mediation as US ratchets up ‘psy-ops’ against Tehran”, Saudi Debate (online), 21 February 2007 http://www.saudidebate.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=510&Itemid=165

⁷ International Crisis Group, After Gaza, 33.

⁸ To date, the Saudis have said that a US-backed Middle East peace conference will be pointless unless it tackles key issues and sets a timetable for a final deal.

⁹ Greg Gause, “US Trying to Soften Saudi Hard Line toward Maliki Government”, Council on Foreign Relations (online), 6 August 2007, http://www.cfr.org/publication/13988/gause.html

¹⁰ http://www.usip.org/isg/iraq_study_group_report/report/1206/iraq_study_group_report.pdf

¹¹ Aarts and Van Duijne, “The Saudi Security Environment”.

¹² International Crisis Group, Iran in Iraq: How Much Influence?

¹³ Three years later, the Jordanian king asked at one point: “Do you want Iran on the banks of the Jordan?”; Ha’aretz, 20 April 2007.

¹⁴ Blanford, “Shiite-Sunni ‘Rift’ a Worry Across Region”, USA Today, 13 April 2006, http://www.usatoday.com/news/wordl/iraq-2006-04-13-iraq-rift_x.htm

¹⁵ Hersch, “The Redirection”, 2. Both countries picture Iran as an existential threat and share the conviction that greater stability in Israel and Palestine will give Iran less leverage in the region.

¹⁶ Valbjorn and Bank, “Signs of a New Arab Cold War”, 7 (italics added); and Fuller, “The Hizbullah-Iran connection”.

¹⁷ Valbjorn and Bank, “Signs of a New Arab Cold War”, 7.

¹⁸ Dickey, “A Desert's Lion in Winter”; and Karen Elliot House, “Saudi Balancing Act”, Wall Street Journal, 4 April 2007.

¹⁹ Hersch, “The Redirection”; and Samuels, “Grand Illusions”.