New Trends in Taiwan's China Policy

Abstract

Elections for a new parliament and president in Taiwan last year have led to a relaxation in the relationship with China that had become increasingly tense under the previous administration in Taipei. Having come to power on a platform of economic revival, the newly elected president, Ma Ying-jeou, now has to win over a wary public to support his policy of deeper engagement with China. This is becoming increasingly difficult as the economic downturn on both sides of the Taiwan Strait has made it hard to deliver the expected material benefits and the island slides into a severe recession. Meanwhile, Ma faces a growing dilemma as he waits for Beijing to deliver concessions on allowing the island more international space. If this is not forthcoming, domestic politics could force him back towards the more assertive foreign policy developed by his predecessors.

Notes

¹Su, Weixian bianlu: liang guo lun dao yi bian yi guo [Brinkmanship: From Two States Theory to One Country Each Side], 17-18.

² Zhongguo shibao [China Times], Taipei, 21 April 2000, 2.

³Hu Jintao, “Hu Jintao de ‘si dian zhuzhang’” [Hu Jintao's ‘Four Main Principles’] 29 April 2005, reprinted in Wei, Lishi de zhuanlie dian: Lian Chan dalu xing [Historical Turning Point: Lien Chan's Mainland Journey], 193.

⁴ Ibid.

⁵The Chinese version states “liang an renmin tongshu zhonghua minzu”. http://info.gio.gov.tw/ct.asp?xItem=36959&ctNode=3802&mp=1. The meaning of this is lost in the English version, which renders it as “In light of our common Chinese heritage”. http://www.gio.gov.tw/ct.asp?xItem=36958&ctNode=2462&mp=807

⁶Siew explains his vision most comprehensively in his monograph Yi jia yi da yu er [One Plus One is Greater Than Two].

⁷Balassa, The Theory of Economic Integration (1961).

⁸Siew, Yi jia yi da yu er [One Plus One is Greater Than Two], 31.

⁹ Lianhe bao [United Daily News], 16 December 2008, A1.

¹⁰“Minzhong dui liang an jiaoliu kaifang sudu de kanfa”, [Views of the Public on the Speed of Opening Cross-Strait Transactions], Mainland Affairs Council of the ROC. http://www.mac.gov.tw/big5/mlpolicy/pos/9710/2.gif

¹¹Directorate General of Budget Accounting and Statistics, ROC, http://eng.dgbas.gov.tw/mp.asp?mp=2

¹²“Central Bank Cuts Interest Rates for the Sixth Time”, Kuomintang News Network, 8 January 2009. http://www.kmtnews.net/client/eng/NewsArtical.php?REFDOCID=;00azwdcsqk1oinbm&TYPIDJump=00air17gdql55u7h

¹³“Record tumble in GDP pushes Taiwan into recession”, Financial Times, 19 February 2009, 8.

¹⁴The impact of this on the relationship with China can be seen in the fact that, in 2006, Taiwan's IT manufacturers based in Taiwan and China shipped a total of US$ 88.6 billion worth of hardware globally, the bulk of which (90%) was notebook PCs, desktop PCs, motherboards, servers, digital still cameras (DSCs), optical disk drives, color display tube (CDT) monitors, and LCD monitors. Taiwan's TFT-LCD industry was estimated to have created a value of US$ 39.4 billion in 2006, with exports accounting for 59.7% of production.

¹⁵“Zhang Rongfa: mingnian xia ban nian hen can” [Chang Yung-fa: The second half of next year will be truly terrible], Jingji ribao, [Economic Daily], 31 December 2008, A1.

¹⁶“Fei le zhongguo, shoule taiwan” [Fattening China and Slimming Taiwan], Ziyou shibao, 15 December 2008, A2.

¹⁷“Zhongguo ke lai 23 wan, Taiwan ke qu 200 wan” [230,000 Chinese visitors come, 2 million Taiwanese go], Ziyou shibao, 15 December 2008, A3.

¹⁸“Si xieyi you wei jue da san tong jin shang lu” [Four Agreements Not Yet Ratified – The Big Three Links Start Today], Ziyou shibao, 15 December 2008, A1.

¹⁹“Chanye kongdong hua, geng ji ehua” [Industrial hollowing out will be even worse], Ziyou shibao, 15 December 2008, A2.

²⁰Dai Wanping, “Da san tong ruhe huanhe jingqi chun yan” [How the Big Three Links Welcome the Swallows of Spring], Lianhe bao, 16 December 2008, A13.

²¹“Jia Qinglin: canyu Taiwan jingjian kang jingji weiji” [Jia Qinglin: Take part in Taiwan's economic construction, fight the economic crisis], Zhongguo shibao, 21 December 2008, A4.

²²“Beijing helps Taipei tackle financial crisis”, South China Morning Post, 22 December 2008.

²³“Liwei zhiyi qian MOU chongji Taiwan jinrong” [Legislators suspect impact of MOU on Taiwan finance], Ziyou shibao, 30 December 2008, A8.

²⁴C.-Y. Tung, “Review of the Opening-Up Policy”, 2009. http://www.peaceforum.org.tw/onweb.jsp?webno=3333333715&webitem_no=1598

²⁵“Dalu shili duo lai Tai youke kewang beizeng” [Mainland Releases Dividends – Visitors from Mainland Hoped to Double], Zhongguo shibao, 21 December 2008, A9.

²⁶Siew, Yi jia yi da yu er [One Plus One is Greater Than Two], 94.

²⁷“Gov’t Looking to Talk to China on CECA”, China Post, 11 February 2009. http://www.chinapost.com.tw/taiwan/china-taiwan-relations/2009/02/11/195516/Govt-looking.htm

²⁸“Ma/Siew White Paper on Foreign Policy”, 20 November 2007. Obtained from Ma Ying-jeou election campaign headquarters, Taipei, March 2008.

²⁹“President Ma's New Year's Day Celebratory Message. January 1 2009”. http://www.president.gov.tw/en/

³⁰“Hu Jintao yu Lian Zhan huitan xinwen gongbao” [Joint Press Statement of the Hu Jintao Lian Zhan Meeting], in Wei, et al., Lishi de zhuanlie dian: Lian Chan dalu xing [Historical Turning Point: Lien Chan's Mainland Journey], 199.

³¹Author's interview with President Ma, Taipei, 3 December 2008.

³²Su, Weixian bianlu: liang guo lun dao yi bian yi guo [Brinkmanship: From Two States Theory to One Country Each Side], 78.

³³For details of these restrictions, see Tung Chenyuen, “The Performance and Review of the Opening-Up Policy to Chinese Tourists”, Peace Forum, 2009. http://www.peaceforum.org.tw/onweb.jsp?webno=3333333715&webitem_no=1598

³⁴On 20 December 2008, Ma made these demands in an interview in Thailand's English language newspaper, The Nation. “Ma Ying-jeou tou shu Tai mei zai yu zhongguo che dui Tai daodan” [Ma Ying-jeou goes through Thai media to urge China to remove missiles aimed at Taiwan], Zhongguo shibao, 21 December 2008, A9.

³⁵“Si xieyi youwei jue da san tong jin shang lu” [Four Agreements Not Yet Approved, The Four Big Links Start], Ziyou shibao, 12 December 2008, A1. For a more extensive criticism of the erosion of democracy that this implies, see Lai Yi-chou (Lai Yizhou), “Liang an bao chong, minzhu baotui” [Turbulence in the Strait, Democracy Retreats], Zhongguo shibao, 21 December 2008, A10.

³⁶“Ma: Tai fei gang zang hetan qian xien che dan” [Ma: Taiwan is not Tibet or Hong Kong. Withdraw Missiles Before Peace Talks], Zhongguo shibao, 24 March 2008, A1.

³⁷C. R. Hughes, “The 2008 legislative yuan election”, Taiwan perspective 118, 20 February 2008, 1–6. http://www.tp.org.tw/eletter/story.htm?id=20012525

³⁸“Zhang Rongfa: mingnian xia ban nian hen can” [Chang Yung-fa: The second half of next year will be truly terrible], Jingji ribao, 31 December 2008, A1.

³⁹56.6% of respondents to the end-of-year opinion survey by Tianxia [Commonwealth] magazine expressed pessimism about their prospects in 2009; a record high, and up from just 23% the previous year. Tianxia, 1 January 2009. http://www.cw.com.tw/article/index.jsp?id=36481

⁴⁰ Tianxia, 1 January 2009. http://www.cw.com.tw/article/index.jsp?page=6&id=36481

⁴¹Public opinion has turned against China on at least three such occasions: the murder of a group of 24 Taiwanese tourists in 1994, China's insistence that the International Red Cross should work under its auspices following a massive earthquake in Taiwan in 1999, and the 2003 SARS crisis.

⁴²These are listed as Taiwanese values in Ma's inauguration speech. For more on his view of values see the interviews with Ma about his formative experiences in Guo, Zhi guo: Taiwan ying de xin celue [Statecraft: New Strategy for Taiwan's Success].

⁴³“President Ma's New Year's Day Celebratory Message”, 1 January 2009. http://www.president.gov.tw/en/