The GCC Monarchies: Perceptions of the Iranian Threat amid Shifting Geopolitics

ABSTRACT

The systemic shift triggered by a progressive retrenchment of the United States (US) from the wider Middle East region has been a fundamental game changer in the security perceptions of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) monarchies. The retrenchment activated a security dilemma in US-GCC relations, especially in relation to their view of Iran. However, the impact was uneven. While the dilemma triggered fears of abandonment in the three more hawkish players – Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain –, it generated fears of entrapment in the three less hawkish players – Oman, Kuwait and Qatar. The key differences between these two camps lie on their threat perceptions. Seemingly shaped by state ideology and religion, narratives of identity, socio-political demography and, finally, leadership cognition, these fears interact with domestic factors such as structural vulnerabilities, to affect the perception of Iran as an existential or non-existential risk.

KEYWORDS:

• GCC foreign policy
• GCC threat perceptions
• Iran
• US geopolitics

Notes

¹ The P5+1 is a group of six world powers which in 2006 joined the negotiations with Iran on its nuclear programme. The term refers to the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, namely US, Russia, China, United Kingdom and France, plus Germany.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Cinzia Bianco

Cinzia Bianco is a Research Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, Berlin, Germany. She holds a PhD in Gulf Studies from the Institute of Arab and Islamic Studies at the University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom.