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Abstract
Iraq's Kurds are insisting that a federal Iraq grant them high levels of self government, including control over their own militia and parliament, that the oil-rich Kirkuk area (over which they already exercise considerable informal control) should be formally incorporated into the Kurdish zone, and that the ‘Arabisation’ policies of the former Ba'athist regime should be reversed. Indeed, they already enjoy considerable de facto control over the Kirkuk area. Ankara, for its part, has strongly signalled that excessive Kurdish autonomy and Kurdish control over Kirkuk are unacceptable, largely because of fears of the consequences for Turkey's Kurdish problem, and the possibility of Turkish military intervention has never been far away. This paper outlines the evolution of events in northern Iraq, and assesses the scenarios and options currently confronting Ankara, Washington and the Iraqi Kurds.
Notes
1 For a list of the membership of Iraq's interim government, and the text of the Transitional Administrative Law (TAL), see http://www.fco.gov.uk/Files/KFile/TAL,0.pdf.
2 TAL, Article 58(c).
3 International Crisis Group, Iraq: Allaying Turkey's fears over Kurdish ambitions, Middle East Report no.35 (Ankara/Amman/Brussels: 26 January 2005), p. 3.
4 For an account of the Kurdish role in the negotiations leading up to the TAL agreement, see International Crisis Group, Iraq's Kurds: Toward an Historic Compromise?, Middle East Report no.26, (Amman/Brussels: 8 April 2004), pp. 1–5.
5 For example, ‘Autonomy plan for Iraq Kurds worries Ankara′, Financial Times, 12 March 2004.
6 Steve Negus, ‘Battling for Iraq's future′, Middle East International, no. 716, 9 January 2004, pp. 4–7.
7 The text of the letter is reproduced in www.kurdistanobserver.com
8 See, for example, Aamer Madhani, ‘Anti- American sentiment grows among Kurds′, Chicago Tribune, reproduced in Kurdistan Observer, 15 June, 2004: and ‘Barzani hints at secession′, Kurdistan Observer, 29 June, 2004.
9 ‘Top Iraq cleric offers caution on UN Resolution′, Washington Post, 7 June 2004.
10 Numerous examples of Kurdish cooperation with coalition forces before, during, and after the March invasion are offered in Yossef Bodansky, The Secret History of the Iraq War (New York: Regan Books, 2004).
11 ‘US seeks to reassure Turkey over control of "Kurdish′ cities", Financial Times; ‘Kurdish victory provokes fears of Turkish invasion′, Independent; ‘Turkey told US will remove Kurd forces from city′, Guardian, all 11 April 2003.
12 ‘Turkey eyes the Middle East: strategic realignments′, Strategic Comments, vol.10, no.6, (London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, July 2004), www.iiss.org/stratcom
13 ‘Local council elected in Kirkuk, draws protests′, Turkish Daily News, 26 May 2003.
14 ‘Iraqi Turkmen Front says US favours Kurds′, Turkish Daily News, 5 June 2003; ‘Turkmens call for power-sharing in administration of new Iraq′, Turkish Daily News, 1 July 2003.
15 Edward Wong, ‘2 Kurdish parties close to forming unity government′, New York Times, 20 December 2003.
16 ‘KDP, PUK to run jointly in January election′, 2 December 2004, and ‘Kurds close ranks in bid to secure federation from elected Iraqi assembly′, 4 December 2004, both in Kurdistan Observer.
17 ‘Oil rich city will be major test for Iraq′, Washington Post, 14 January 2004.
18 International Crisis Group, Iraq's Kurds: Toward an Historic Compromise?, Middle East Report no. 26 (Amman/Brussels: 8 April 2004) p.11.
19 See Human Rights Watch 16 (4E), Reversing ethnic cleansing in Northern Iraq, August 2004. This report offers a good account of Arabisation, Kurdish attempts to reverse it since April 2003, and the issues and difficulties this raises. For a Kurdish view, see Gareth Smyth, interview with Nechirvan Barzani, Financial Times, 28 January 2005, and reproduced in Kurdistan Observer.
20 International Crisis Group, Iraq: allaying Turkey's fears over Kurdish ambitions, Middle East Report No.35, (Ankara/ Amman/Brussels: 26 January 2005) p.3.
21 Human Rights Watch, Reversing ethnic cleansing, p. 48. See also International Crisis Group, Iraq: allaying Turkey's fears, pp. 2–3.
22 ‘Turkmen quit Kirkuk city council, say Kurds taking over′, Kurdistan Observer, 28 March 2004.
23 Jackie Spinner, ‘Ethnic groups try to stake claim on Kirkuk′, Washington Post, 30 January 2005.
24 Nicholas Blanford, ‘Some 200 Sadr militiamen March through Kirkuk′, Kurdistan Observer, 8 March 2004; Michael Howard, ‘Insurgents stir up strife in Kirkuk′, Washington Post, 17 May 2004; and Gareth Stansfield, ‘Continued developments threaten Iraq's territorial integrity′, Gulf News, 18 May 2004.
25 International Crisis Group, Iraq: allaying Turkey's fears, p.5.
26 ‘New insurgency confronts US forces′, 12 November 2004: ‘Insurgents step up the battle for Mosul′, 25 November 2004: and ‘Mosul victim beheaded at roadside′, 18 December 2004, all in the Guardian.
27 Michael Knights, ‘Lessons from Mosul′, Policywatch, no. 950, 27 January 2005. www.washingtoninstitute.org
28 Article 58a of the TAL commits the transitional government to ‘act expeditiously to take measures to remedy the injustice caused by the previous regime's practices in altering the demographic character of certain regions, including Kirkuk′, by restoring ‘the (displaced) residents to their homes and property′ and resettling those thereby displaced.
29 For details, see Human Rights Watch, Reversing ethnic cleansing in Northern Iraq, August 2004, pp. 55–77.
30 ‘Iraqi election creates unusual alliances′, Kurdistan Observer, 30 November 2004. See also Kirsten Scharnberg, ‘Leader warns Kurds must be allowed to re-establish majority in Kirkuk′, Chicago Tribune, 10 December 2004.
31 ‘Kirkuk election deal tips power to Kurds, angers Arabs, Turkmen′, 15 January 2005; ‘Talabani: we have received assurances for Kirkuk′, 23 January 2005, both Kurdistan Observer.
32 ‘An Arab party based in Kirkuk to boycott elections′, Kurdistan Observer, 25 January 2005.
33 ‘PKK-linked parties to participate in Iraq elections′, Turkish Daily News, 26 January 2005.
34 Selcan Hacaoglu, ‘Turkey warns Kurds about Kirkuk control′, Kurdistan Observer, and Yusuf Kanli, ‘Turkey's Kirkuk anxiety′, Turkish Daily News, both 27 January 2005.
35 ‘Kirkuk consensus′, Turkish Daily News, 28 January 2005.
36 ‘Turkey appeals to UN for Kirkuk′, Turkish Daily News, 25 January 2005.
37 Yusuf Kanli, ‘Turkey won′t sit back over Kirkuk spillover′, Turkish Daily News, 28 January 2005.
38 ‘US policy on the status of Kirkuk′, http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2005/40916.htm, 13 January 2005.
39 ‘Talabani: Kirkuk is Kurds′ Jerusalem′, Turkish Daily News, 31 December 2004.
40 Kirsten Scharnberg, ‘Leader warns Kurds must be allowed to re-establish majority in Kirkuk′, Chicago Tribune, 10 December 2004.
41 ‘Kurdish state is a "red line" for Syria, too′, Turkish Daily News, 28 December 2004.
42 ‘Barzani sees Kirkuk joining southern Kurdistan′, Kurdistan Observer,18 October 2004.
43 ‘Iraqi Kurd leader warns neighbours not to meddle in Kirkuk issue′, Kurdistan Observer, 17 October 2004.
44 ‘Massoud Barzani: Kurds ready to fight for Kirkuk′, Kurdistan Observer, 13 October 2004.
45 ‘Kurdish leader: Kirkuk holds solution to future′, 26 June 2004; and ‘Barzani hints at secession′, 30 June 2004, both Kurdistan Observer.
46 Gareth Smyth, Interview with Nechirvan Barzani, Financial Times, 28 January 2005.
47 International Crisis Group, Iraq's Kurds, p.7. This theme, that the Kurdish leadership in Iraq has hitherto exhibited a readiness to compromise that is neither understood nor supported by the Kurdish population generally, constitutes the main thrust of this report.
48 ‘Kurds lay ground for independence poll′, Daily Telegraph, 9 January 2004, ‘Iraqi Kurds seek referendum on a Kurdish state′, Kurdistan Observer, 24 December 2004.
49 Kamil Mirawdeli, ‘Voting for independence: people of Kurdistan make their choice′, Kurdistan Observer, 8 February 2005.
50 Peter W. Galbraith, ‘As Iraqis celebrate, the Kurds hesitate′, New York Times, 1 February 2005.
51 Faik Bulut, ‘Preparing the new Iraqi constitution – risk factor′, Turkish Daily News, 8 February 2005.
52 For a general consideration of the role of Turkmen in Turkish foreign policy, see H.Tarik Oguzlu, ‘The "Turkomans" as a Factor in Turkish Foreign Policy′, Turkish Studies, vol.3, no.2, autumn 2002, pp.139–148.
53 For example, little support was offered to the many Turkmen who fell victim to Saddam's ‘Arabisation′.
54 For an interesting comparison of British, Ottoman, and Iraqi figures for the demographic breakdown of ‘Iraqi Kurdistan′, see Nazhad Khasraw Hawramany, ‘Ethnic distribution in Kirkuk, past and present′, Kurdistan Observer, 15 January 2004.
55 ‘Turkmen quit Kirkuk city council, say Kurds taking over′, Kurdistan Observer, 29 March 2004.
56 ‘If Kurds insist, Turkmen will demand a federal region′, Zaman 5 January 2004.
57 Saadet Oruc, ‘Iraqi Turcomans concerned about security′, Turkish Daily News, 18 March 2002.
58 Middle East Programme Briefing Paper BP04/02, Iraq in transition: vortex or catalyst? (London: Chatham House, September 2004), p. 23.
59 International Crisis Group, Iraq: allaying Turkey's fears, p. 10. See pp. 9-11 for a brief and useful summary of Ankara's relationship with the Turkmen of Iraq.
60 Yossef Bodansky, The Secret History of the Iraq War (New York: Regan Books, 2004), pp. 30-31.
61 Ilnur Cevik, ‘Turkey flops on Iraqi Turkmens′, Turkish Probe, reproduced in Kurdistan Observer, 23 March 2004.
62 Jean-Christophe Peuch, ‘US–Turkey: Relations still racked by mutual distrust despite attempts to mend fences′, www.rferl.org/features/2003/07/1707200316029
63 ‘Military outlines possible location for Iraq troops′, Turkish Daily News, 27 September 2003.
64 Patrick Cockburn, ‘Turks react with fury to massive US assault on northern city′, Independent, 12 September 2004; Scheherezade Faramarzi, ‘US allows Iraqis back to Tal Afar homes′, Washington Post, 14 September 2004; ‘US requests "warning" clarification′, and ‘Tal Afar turns to rubble′, both Turkish Daily News, 15 September 2004; ‘Turkey sending aid to Tal Afar in next few days′, Turkish Daily News, 16 September 2004.
65 ‘Turkey, Iraq at odds over new border gate′, Turkish Daily News, 12 March 2004; Mete Belovacikli, ‘Tal Afar, Kirkuk, Mosul, Arbil, Tuz Khurmatu′, Turkish Daily News, 15 September 2004.
66 Ilnur Cevik, ‘Turkey flops on Iraqi Turkmens′, Turkish Probe, reproduced in Kurdistan Observer, 23 March 2004.
67 ‘Kurds tell Ankara Arabisation true danger in Kirkuk′, Turkish Daily News, 23 June 2004.
68 Ilnur Cevik, ‘Start living in the real world in Iraq′, Turkish Daily News, 26 May 2004.
69 ‘Kirkuk sensitivity′, Turkish Daily News, 14 October 2004.
70 Kemal Kirisci, ‘Between Europe and the Middle East: the transformation of Turkish policy′, MERIA, vol.8, no.1, March 2004; and Strategic Comments, ‘Turkey eyes the Middle East′.
71 Philip J. Robins, ‘Avoiding the question′, in Henri J. Barkey (ed), Reluctant Neighbour: Turkey's role in the Middle East (Washington DC: US Institute of Peace Press, 1996), pp. 179–203.
72 Mehmet Ali Burand, ‘Is there a new role for Turkey in the Middle East?′, in Henri J. Barkey, (ed), Reluctant Neighbour: Turkey's role in the Middle East, p. 171.
73 ‘PM says Turkey to pursue active foreign policy′, Turkish Daily News, 5 January 2005.
74 A characterisation offered by Kemal Kirisci, ‘Between Europe and the Middle East: the transformation of Turkish policy′
75 Soner Cagaptay, ‘A Turkish rapprochement with Middle East rogue states?′, Policywatch, no. 825, January 9 2004, Washington Institute of Near East Policy, p. 2, www.washingtoninstitute.org
76 Phebe Marr, ‘Turkey and Iraq′, in Henri J. Barkey, (ed), Reluctant Neighbour: Turkey's role in the Middle East, pp. 45–69.
77 ‘Ankara: "We will take Baghdad as a counterpart for the second border gate with Iraq, but not the Kurds"′, Turkish Daily News, 19 June 2001.
78 See, for example, ‘Ecevit: Saddam should allow arms inspectors to return′, Turkish Daily News, 23 January 2002; and ‘Ecevit warns Saddam: do not set the region on fire′, Turkish Daily News, 11 February 2002.
79 ‘Turkish trade delegation urges Iraq to avert war′, Financial Times, 10 January 2003.
80 ‘Turkey to drum up Arab support for war′, Financial Times, 19 December 2002.
81 For a text of the communiqué, and for a report on the proceedings, see Turkish Daily News, 25 January 2003.
82 See the 14 February 2004 Kuwait address by Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul, http://www.mfa.gov.tr/MFA/PressInformation/Speeches/Speeches2004/StatementByGul_14February2004.htm
83 Soner Cagaptay, ‘A Turkish rapprochement with Middle East rogue states?′, Policywatch, no. 825, 9 January 2004, Washington Institute of Near East Policy, p. 2, www.washingtoninstitute.org
84 ‘Kurds killed in Syria clashes′, www.news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3517848 , 16 March 2004; ‘Syria urged to free riot Kurds′, www.news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3607059, 7 April 2004.
85 Gurgur Garrusi, ‘Kurds riot in Iran′, Kurdistan Observer, 11 March 2004.
86 Muhammad Muslih, ‘Syria and Turkey: uneasy relations′, in Henri J. Barkey, (ed), Reluctant Neighbour: Turkey's role in the Middle East, pp.113–129.
87 Quoted in Soner Cagaptay, ‘A Turkish rapprochement with Middle East rogue states?′
88 See Gokhan Cetinsaya, ‘Essential friends and natural enemies: the historic roots of Turkish–Iranian relations′, MERIA, vol.7, no.3, September 2003; and Atila Eralp, ‘Facing the challenge: post-revolutionary relations with Iran′, Henri J. Barkey, (ed), Reluctant Neighbour: Turkey's role in the Middle East, pp.93–112.
89 ‘Iran reassures Turkey on border security′, Turkish Daily News, 12 January 2004.
90 ‘Iran to declare Kongra-Gel as terrorist′, Turkish Daily News, 21 July 2004.
91 ‘Erdogan says Iran visit not aimed against third countries′, Turkish Daily News, 31 July 2004.
92 ‘Turkey denies shift in foreign policy′, Financial Times, 8 April 2003. See also Strategic Comments, ‘Turkey eyes the Middle East′.
93 See for example ‘Syria and Iran aiding militants, Iraq says′, Guardian, 20 February 2004.
94 ‘Malaysia urges Muslim peacekeeping force in Iraq under UN′, Washington Post, 10 October 2003; ‘Turkey faces tough task in getting OIC support for Iraq mission′, Turkish Daily News, 13 October 2004; ‘Turkey calls for Islamic peacekeeping call for Iraq′, Turkish Daily News, 14 October 2004.
95 Seymour Hersh, ‘Plan B′, New Yorker, 28 June 2004.
96 See Soner Cagaptay, ‘Kurds on the way to Turkey: how Israel can prevent a crisis in its relations with Turkey′, Ha′aretz, 13 July 2004; Ed Blanche, ‘Israel's alliance with Turkey′, Daily Star, 17 July 2004; ‘FM appears convinced by Israeli denial′, Turkish Daily News, 23 June 2004.
97 See ‘Rift in Kongra-Gel threatens return to violence′, Jane's Intelligence Review, 1 June 2004. The following passage draws heavily on this report. As is common practice, the term PKK will continue to be used throughout to refer to Turkey's armed Kurdish opponents.
98 ‘PKK/KADEK claims to have disarmed′, 6 January 2004; ‘Osman Ocalan in Mosul′, 23 June 2004; and ‘Osman Ocalan: we have laid down our arms′, 17 September 2004, all Turkish Daily News; ‘The dispirited descent of Turkish rebel Kurds in Iraq′, Washington Post, 26 September 2004. See also Michael Howard, ‘In their Iraqi mountain hideaway Turkey's most wanted men stay loyal to their cause′, Guardian 8 October 2003.
99 Ilnur Cevik, ‘Who left the door open?′, Turkish Daily News, 23 June 2004; Soner Cagaptay and Emrullah Eslu, ‘Is the PKK still a threat to the United States and Turkey?′, Policywatch, no. 940, 10 January 2005, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, www.washingtoninstitute.org
100 Ilnur Cevik, ‘Who left the door open?′, Turkish Daily News, 23 June 2004; Soner Cagaptay and Emrullah Eslu, ‘Is the PKK still a threat to the United States and Turkey?′, Policywatch, no. 940, 10 January 2005, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, www.washingtoninstitute.org.
101 ‘Turkish army flexes muscles on Iraq, Cyprus′, Washington Post, 16 January 2004.
102 ‘Gul: we will take care of PKK ourselves′, in comments reported in the Turkish newspaper Zaman and reproduced in the Kurdistan Observer, 3 September 2004.
103 Reported in the Kurdistan Observer, 11 September 2004.
104 ‘Gul: US has lost the support of Turkish public′, in comments reported in the Turkish newspaper Zaman and reproduced in the Kurdistan Observer, 24 November 2004.
105 Jane's Intelligence Review, ‘Rift in Kongra- Gel′. See also Mehmet Ali Birand, ‘PKK in northern Iraq not on the agenda anymore′, Turkish Daily News, 5 May 2004.
106 For example, see ‘US says no military action on PKK soon′, Turkish Daily News, 19 June 2004.
107 ‘Remarks by Condoleeza Rice about Kurds in southern Kurdistan′, Kurdistan Observer, 21 August 2004.
108 ‘Turkey loses patience with US stance on Kurdish rebels, PM warns′, Kurdistan Observer, 4 September 2004.
109 Reported in the Kurdistan Observer, 22 December 2004.
110 ‘Turkey presses Iraq on PKK extradition′, Turkish Daily News, and ‘US and Iraq agree on militants′ return′, Zaman, both 13 January 2005.
111 ‘Zaman asks, Edelman answers′, Zaman, 10–11 January 2005.
112 ‘Priorities differ on PKK issue′, Turkish Daily News, 12 January 2005.
113 Soner Cagaptay, ‘Time to shut down the PKK: why the US and Turkey should work together′, Policywatch, no. 786, 12 September 2003, Washington Institute Near East Policy, www.washingtoninstitute.org
114 ‘Strains with America′, Newsweek, 7 February 2005.
115 Ambassador Nuzhet Kandemir (retired), in an interview with Turkish Daily News, ‘The future of Iraq′, 5 November 2005.
116 See for example a WorldNetDaily report, ‘Military calls for massive operation into Kurdish region′, posted 12 November 2004, and reproduced in the Kurdistan Observer, 13 November 2004. The Turkish press also carried reports of the plans.
117 Soner Cagaptay, ‘Time to shut down the PKK: why the US and Turkey should work together′, Policywatch; International Crisis Group, Iraq: allaying Turkey's fears, p.14.
118 Details of Turkey's EU accession-related reform programme can be found at the Turkish Foreign Ministry website at www.mfa.gov.tr
119 This point is made by Graham E. Fuller, ‘Turkey's strategic model′, Washington Quarterly, vol.27, no.3, summer 2004, pp.51–64.; and Mohammed Ayoob, ‘Turkey's multiple paradoxes′, Orbis, vol. 48, no. 3, summer 2004, pp. 451–463.
120 See Ziya Onis, ‘Domestic politics, international norms, and challenges to the state: Turkish–EU relations in the post-Helsinki era′, Turkish Studies, vol.4, no.1, spring 2003, pp. 9–34.
121 Regular report on Turkey's progress towards accession, http://europa.eu.int/comm/enlargement/turkey/index.htm
122 See, for example, the statement issued on 12 December 2004 by a group of prominent Kurdish leaders associated with the Kurdish Institute of Paris, ‘What do the Kurds want in Turkey?′, found at www.kurdistanobserver.com See also, ‘Kurds see bright future in EU′, 9 October 2004; and ‘Kurds ask Turkey for more democratic steps ahead of key EU summit′, 4 December 2004, both Kurdistan Observer.
123 ‘Kurd activists set up new party′, 23 October 2004; and ‘Kurdish politicians lend support to Zana's call for new party′, 4 November 2004, both Kurdistan Observer.
124 Soner Cagaptay and Emrullah Eslu, ‘Is the PKK still a threat to the United States and Turkey?′
125 Dogu Ergil, ‘Foreign policy challenges (2): Iraq′, 7 February 2005; and Faik Bulut, ‘Preparing the new Iraqi constitution; risk factor′, 8 February 2005, both Turkish Daily News.