![Sample our Politics & International Relations journals, sign in here to start your FREE access for 14 days]({"type":"image" , "src" : "/sda/5947/TOC-Subject-Sample-2021-Politics-International-Relations.jpg"})
Abstract
Iraq's Kurds are insisting that a federal Iraq grant them high levels of self government, including control over their own militia and parliament, that the oil-rich Kirkuk area (over which they already exercise considerable informal control) should be formally incorporated into the Kurdish zone, and that the ‘Arabisation’ policies of the former Ba'athist regime should be reversed. Indeed, they already enjoy considerable de facto control over the Kirkuk area. Ankara, for its part, has strongly signalled that excessive Kurdish autonomy and Kurdish control over Kirkuk are unacceptable, largely because of fears of the consequences for Turkey's Kurdish problem, and the possibility of Turkish military intervention has never been far away. This paper outlines the evolution of events in northern Iraq, and assesses the scenarios and options currently confronting Ankara, Washington and the Iraqi Kurds.
Notes
1 Quoted in Jackie Spinner, ‘For proud minority, a "very happy day"′, Washington Post, 31 January 2005.
2 ‘Kurds set to win two thirds of vote in Kirkuk′, Kurdistan Observer, 2 February 2005.
3 ‘Talabani: Kirkuk is Kurds′ Jerusalem′, Turkish Daily News, 31 December 2004.
4 ‘Iraq in transition: vortex or catalyst?′, Middle East Programme Briefing Paper 04/02, Chatham House, London, September 2004.
5 ‘Iraq in transition: vortex or catalyst?′, Middle East Programme Briefing Paper 04/02, Chatham House, London, September 2004, p. 6. See also Dawn Brancati, ‘Can federalism stabilise Iraq?′, Washington Quarterly, vol. 27, no. 2, spring 2004, pp. 14–15 and 19–20 for a consideration of this possibility.
6 ‘Iraq in transition: vortex or catalyst?′, p. 9.
7 ‘Iraq in transition: vortex or catalyst?′, p. 16.
8 International Crisis Group, Iraq's Kurds: Toward an Historic Compromise?, Middle East Report no.26, (Amman/Brussels: 8 April 2004), p. i.
9 International Crisis Group, Iraq's Kurds: Toward an Historic Compromise?, Middle East Report no.26, (Amman/Brussels: 8 April 2004), p. i.
10 For some brief comment on the differences between the two leaders, see Gareth R.V. Stansfield, ‘The Kurdish dilemma: the golden era threatened′, in Toby Dodge and Steven Simon (eds), Iraq at the crossroads: state and society in the shadow of regime change, Adelphi Paper 354, (Oxford: Oxford University Press for the International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2003) pp. 131–147
11 For details of the KDP and PUK approach to ‘de-Arabisation′ since April 2003, see Human Rights Watch, Reversing ethnic cleansing in Northern Iraq.
12 Henry Kissinger, ‘Reflections on a sovereign Iraq′, reproduced in Kurdistan Observer, 8 February 2004
13 Nuzhet Kandemir, ‘The future of Iraq′, Turkish Daily News, 5 November 2004.
14 International Crisis Group, Iraq: allaying Turkey's fears, p. 12.
15 Comments made in an interview with Yusuf Kanli, ‘Last minute warning: Turkey won′t remain indifferent to sufferings of Turkmen′, Turkish Daily News, 31 January 2005.
16 International Crisis Group, Iraq: allaying Turkey's fears, p. 12.
17 Kemal Kirisci, ‘Between Europe and the Middle East: the transformation of Turkish policy′
18 ‘Iraq in transition: vortex or catalyst?′, ‘Iraq in transition′, p.23.
19 ‘CIA sound alarm on Iraq civil war′, Kurdistan Observer, 23 January 2004.
20 Christopher Catherwood, Winston's Folly: Imperialism and the Creation of Modern Iraq (London: Constable, 2004), p. 136.
21 Christopher Catherwood, Winston's Folly: Imperialism and the Creation of Modern Iraq (London: Constable, 2004), p. 227.
22 Leslie H. Gelb, ‘The three-state solution′, New York Times, 25 November 2004. For the transcript of a debate with Martin Indyk on Gelb's arguments, held under the auspices of the Council for Foreign Relations, see www.cfr.org/publications.php?id=6749
23 Henry Kissinger, ‘Reflections on a sovereign Iraq′, reproduced in Kurdistan Observer, 8 February 2004.
24 Henry Kissinger, ‘Reflections on a sovereign Iraq′, reproduced in Kurdistan Observer, 8 February 2004.
25 See Peter Galbraith, ‘How to get out of Iraq′, New York Review of Books, 15 April 2004.
26 Doug Struck and Bassam Sebti, ‘Iraq Shi′ite coalition tries to dispel fears of Iran-style rule′, Washington Post, 16 January 2005.
27 Bradley Graham, ‘US officials discount risk of Iran-style rule′, Washington Post, 7 February 2005.
28 For comment, see Strategic Comments, vol. 10, no. 1, ‘Iraq's constitution: breakthrough overshadowed by violence′, March 2004, International Institute for Strategic Studies, London; ‘Shi′ites balk at signing Iraqi interim constitution′, Washington Post, 5 March 2004.
29 ‘Iraq in transition: vortex or catalyst?′, p. 4.
30 This prospect is explored by Michael Gunter, ‘The consequences of a failed Iraqi state: an independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq?′, Journal of South Asian and Middle Eastern Studies, vol. 27, no. 3, spring 2004, pp. 1–11.
31 International Crisis Group, Iraq: allaying Turkey's fears, p. 15.
32 Michael Gunter, ‘The consequences of a failed Iraqi state: an independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq?′, Journal of South Asian and Middle Eastern Studies, vol. 27, no. 3, spring 2004, p.10.
33 Timothy Noah, ‘Are the Kurds coming around?′, Kurdistan Observer, 19 May 2004, reporting on an article by Hugh Pope and Bill Spindle, also on 19 May, in the Wall Street Journal.
34 ‘Bush and Clinton told Congress Saddam was smuggling oil′, Financial Times, 19 January 2005.
35 See ‘The Ankara-Erbil axis′, reproduced in the Kurdistan Observer from the National Review Online, 2 February 2004; and ‘Ilnur Cevik, ‘New opening with the Iraqi Kurds?′, Turkish Daily News, 16 February 2004.
36 Yusuf Kanli, ‘Have we recognised the state of "Kurdistan?"′ Turkish Daily News, 11 November 2004.
37 ‘Talabani: fight against PKK needs time′, Turkish Daily News, 9 September 2004.
38 Ilnur Cevik, ‘Iraqi Kurds courting Erdogan′, 21 June 2004; and Cengiz Candar, ‘Turkish–Kurdish rapprochement despite the Americans′, 23 June 2004, both Turkish Daily News.
39 Ilnur Cevik, ‘Ankara ponders new Iraq policy′, Turkish Daily News, 10 November 2003.
40 ‘Kurds surprised by Turkey's stand on autonomy′, Turkish Daily News, 28 June 2004.
41 International Crisis Group, Iraq: allaying Turkey's fears, p. 16.
42 International Crisis Group, Iraq: allaying Turkey's fears, p. 16.
43 For a recent examples of this from the Turkish side, see ‘US ties above everything, says Gul′, Turkish Daily News 4 January 2005.
44 During an interview with Larry King, at www.dod.mil/transcripts/2005/tr20050203-secdef2084
45 Ian O. Lesser, ‘Turkey in the EU: a new US relationship′, Insight Turkey, vol. 6, no. 4, October–December 2004, p. 36.
46 For details of Turkish public opinion and how it compares globally see the chapter entitled ‘Global opinion: the spread of anti-Americanism′, in the Pew Research Centre's Trends 2005, http://pewresearch.org/trends/trends2005-global.pdf
47 ‘US says no plan to station more F-16s at Incirlik′, Turkish Daily News, 2 February 2005. For more information on the Review see Statement by Douglas J. Feith, Undersecretary of Defense for policy, before the House Armed Services Committee, 23 June 2004, www.defenselink.mil/policy/speech/june_23_04.html
48 ‘Feith seeks anti-nuke cooperation, reassures over Kirkuk′, Turkish Daily News, 1 February 2005.
49 Deputy Secretary Paul Wolfowitz interview with CNN TURK, http://www.dod.mil/transcripts/2004/tr20040129-depsecdef0382.html
50 For comment on the Bush administration's Middle East Initiative, see Philip H. Gordon, ‘Bush's Middle East vision′, Survival, vol. 45, no. 1, spring 2003, pp. 155–165.
51 This point is made by Graham E. Fuller, ‘Turkey's strategic model; myths and realities′, The Washington Quarterly, vol. 27, no. 3, summer 2004, pp. 51–64, and by Mohammed Ayoob, ‘Turkey's multiple paradoxes′, Orbis, vol. 48, no. 3, summer 2004, pp. 451–463.
52 Abdullah Gul, ‘Turkey's role in a changing Middle East environment′, Mediterranean Quarterly, vol. 15, no. 1, winter 2004, p.7.
55 ‘Gul says Mideast drive no matter of "prestige"′, Turkish Daily News, 5 January 2005.
56 ‘PM says Turkey to pursue active foreign policy′, Turkish Daily News, 5 January 2005.
57 ‘US sees Turkey can play positive role in Mideast process′, Turkish Daily News, 5 January 2005.
59 Abdullah Gul, ‘Turkey's role in a changing Middle East environment′, p.5.
60 For a strong statement of this line of thinking by two senior US figures, see Morton Abramowitz and Richard Burt, ‘High stakes for Turkey and the west′, Washington Post, 20 August 2004.
61 See Ziya Onis, ‘Domestic politics, international norms, and challenges to the state: Turkish-EU relations in the post-Helsinki era′, pp. 9–34.
62 Regular Report on Turkey's progress towards accession. www.europa.eu.int/comm/enlargement/report_2004/
63 Graham E. Fuller, ‘Turkey's strategic model′, Washington Quarterly, vol. 27, no.3, summer 2004, p. 63.