Explaining Low Turnout in European Elections: The Role of Issue Salience and Institutional Perceptions in Elections to the European Parliament

Abstract

Elections to the European Parliament have been unable to capture the public’s interest— turnout remains far lower than most national elections and many who do vote appear more concerned with sending messages of approval to national political parties than electing representatives at the EU level. This paper seeks to explain why the public does not take these elections seriously. A common explanation is that the public simply does not care about EU politics. In addition to this ‘issue-based’ argument, this article considers where a lack of trust in the European Parliament itself may lead many individuals to abstain from EP elections. Using pre and post-election survey data, results suggest that perceptions of the EP indeed have a significant effect on the decision to vote in EP elections.

Key words:

• Voter turnout
• EP elections
• second-order theory
• issue salience

Notes

1. Citing survey data provided by Bonnie Meguid.

2. Low EU issue salience may be as much a consequence of the political environment as a cause of the second-order effect. For instance, Reif and Schmitt (1980) argue that EU issues will not be a factor in EP elections so long as national-based political parties manage both national and European elections.

3. Eurobarometer 69.2 was conducted in each of the 27 EU member states. This survey was administered through face-to-face interviews in each respondent’s home, using the national language of the respondent’s country. Except for Cyprus, Germany, Luxembourg, Malta, and the United Kingdom, there were approximately 1000 respondents from each EU country. There are approximately 500 respondents from the three smaller states, approximately 1300 respondents from the United Kingdom, and approximately 1500 respondents from Germany.

4. The EES was conducted in each of the 27 EU member states. The survey was administered through phone interviews, except in seven East European countries where representative phone sampling was not feasible. In these countries, 70 per cent of respondents were administered the survey through face-to-face interviews and the other 30 per cent were administered the survey through phone interviews. There are approximately 1000 respondents from each member state.

5. Later Eurobarometer surveys, conducted after the 2009 EP elections, do not include the same measures of the EP’s importance