War and integration. The Russian attack on Ukraine and the institutional development of the EU

ABSTRACT

How does the Russian war in Ukraine affect European integration? Bellicist theories predict a push towards federation, marked by a centralization of fiscal, coercive and administrative core state powers at the EU level. But is it happening? We examine two main conditions of bellicist integration. The ‘functional’ condition refers to the efficiency gains of centralization: no federation without functional benefit. The ‘political’ condition refers to a threat-induced alignment of interests and identities that makes centralization politically viable: no federation without public support. We gauge both conditions during the early months of the war and explain why they have not pushed the EU towards centralized federation but, to the contrary, towards decentral alliance. We discuss issue-specific differences in defence, energy and fiscal policy and conclude with some general theoretical implications.

KEYWORDS:

• Bellicist theories
• Ukraine
• European Union
• integration theory

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Supplementary data

Supplemental data for this article can be accessed online at https://doi.org/10.1080/07036337.2023.2183397

Notes

1. https://www.bundestag.de/dokumente/textarchiv/2022/kw08-sondersitzung-882198.

2. http://europeangovernanceandpolitics.eui.eu/eui-yougov-solidarity-in-europe-project/.

3. https://euideas.eui.eu/2022/04/15/the-eu-strategic-compass-charting-a-course-in-stormy-seas/; see also https://www.euractiv.de/section/eu-aussenpolitik/news/bundeskanzler-karl-nehammer-es-wird-keine-eu-armee-geben/?_ga=2.12459703.22185552.1657831131–1521236069.1653920741.

4. State of the Union Address by President von der Leyen (europa.eu).

5. https://www.politico.eu/article/nine-eu-capitals-blocs-deficit-rules-should-waive-defense-spending/.

6. https://www.euractiv.com/section/economy-jobs/news/eu-fiscal-rules-to-be-suspended-for-another-year/.

7. https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/short_news/austrian-chancellor-says-eu-army-not-going-to-happen/.

8. https://www.ft.com/content/a1a242c3–9000-454d-bec7-c49077b2cc6c.

9. https://www.politico.eu/article/jens-stoltenberg-madrid-nato-summit-pledges-300k-troops-then-leaves-everyone-guessing/.

10. https://www.euractiv.com/section/economy-jobs/news/france-plants-seed-for-joint-eu-borrowing-scheme-to-absorb-sanctions-effects/.

11. https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_22_1607.

12. https://www.ft.com/content/0300afa5–3166-4feb-9207-73f494c23063.

Additional information

Funding

The work was supported by the Research Foundation - Flanders (FWO).