In the Shadow of Henry Clay: How to Choose a Successful Opposition Presidential Candidate

Abstract

This article explores one aspect of how presidential candidates from the opposition party can be successful in the general election. The project accepts as a given Stephen Skowronek's notion that American political history can be described as a series of "regimes" that favor one party over the other. This research extends that notion to an analysis of presidential elections. If political eras tend to favor presidential candidates from the governing party, how do candidates from the opposition party–lthe Zachary Taylors, Grover Clevelands, and Bill Clintons of the world–get elected? Purist representatives of the opposition party's anchor faction–Henry Clay, William Jennings Bryan, Barry Goldwater–are remarkably unsuccessful in upending the dominant regime, whereas military heroes (Zachary Taylor, Dwight Eisenhower) or relative unknowns (Grover Cleveland, Woodrow Wilson) achieve greater success. This project is an attempt to look more systematically at this dynamic–to explore how the notion of political time affects the question of electability.

I had rather be right than be president

Henry Clay