Divided Government, United Approval: The Dynamics of Congressional and Presidential Approval

Abstract

A theory of partisan control might expect that during times of divided government, approval of Congress and the presidency would move in opposite directions. Yet, the congressional approval question is an ambiguous one in the minds of voters and makes understanding the movement of the aggregated series much more difficult. Here, monthly congressional and presidential approval data for the 1995-2005 period are studied and found to move in tandem, even during periods of divided government. Multivariate ARFIMA models show a strong and positive relationship between congressional approval and lagged presidential approval, even during the period of fiercely divided government under President Clinton. This means that, rather than paying attention to partisan control, the electorate transfers feelings about the president to the institution of Congress.