SOCIAL IMPACT ANALYSIS OF FOUR ENERGY SCENARIOS

ABSTRACT

The program group “Technology and Society” of the Nuclear Research Centre Jülich was assigned the task by the Federal Ministery of Research and Technology (FRG) to investigate the social impacts (Sozlal-veräglichkeit) of four energy scenarios developed by a Parliamentary Enquete Commission consisting of experts and politicians. The Julich study group based their investigation on a complex model linking the technique of value tree analysis with traditional methods of technology assessment and the incorporation of participatory involvement by citizens.

First, by interviewing representatives of stakeholder groups the concerns and criteria relevant to the energy debate were collected and sorted, secondly, the impacts of each dimension were measured or estimated (via expert ratings or judgements) and thirdly, the weights and evaluations for each criterion and option were assigned by so called planning cells. Planning cells consist of groups of citizens who are selected by random process and are given paid leave from their workday obligations for a limited period of time to work out solutions for social problems. A total of 24 planning cells were organized throughout Germany to evaluate the four energy scenarios and to formulate recommendations for the policy maker. One outstanding result was that most citizens favored the more moderate scenarios, but were almost equally devided in their preference distribution with respect to the pronuclear and non-nuclear option. The paper describes the basic methodology, gives a review of the results and discusses, the pitfalls and merits of this three-fold approach for policy making.

KEY WORDS:

• Technology and Society
• social impacts
• energy scenarios
• value tree analysis
• participatory involvement
• expert ratings
• planning cells