Deconstructing the Ferguson effect: a multilevel mediation analysis of public scrutiny, de-policing, and crime

ABSTRACT

Proponents of the ‘Ferguson effect’ suggest de-policing – stemming from increased public scrutiny over the death of Michael Brown – is responsible for the recent surge in crime across the United States. While this phenomenon has been the subject of widespread speculation, the hypothesized mechanism through which public scrutiny of police impacts crime have remained unexplored. This study attempts to fill the gap by deconstructing the effects of public scrutiny on crime trends in New York City police precincts over a two-year period (2014–2015). Findings indicate partial support for the Ferguson effect. While public scrutiny predicted variations in de-policing, the results show de-policing did not predict increases in crime. Interestingly, this study finds public scrutiny had a significant positive direct effect on crime rates, suggesting it increased crime through alternative causal processes. These findings have important theoretical and policy implications for understanding the causes and prevention of crime.

KEYWORDS:

• Ferguson effect
• policing
• public scrutiny
• crime trends
• mass media

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Supplementary material

Supplemental data for this article can be accessed here.

Notes

1. Exogenous shocks are unexpected or unpredictable events that occur and can have dramatic effects on the incidence of a phenomenon.

2. The Uniform Crime Report’s (UCR) Part I offenses include criminal homicide, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, larceny-theft, burglary, motor vehicle theft, and arson.

3. The cycle has five stages, including: (1) the pre-problem stage; (2) alarmed discovery and euphoric enthusiasm; (3) realizing the cost of significant progress; (4) gradual decline in the public interest; and (5) the post-problem stage.

4. While we hypothesize that public scrutiny leads to de-policing through low morale, it is important to note that this mechanism is not tested in this study. The purpose of this study is to test the Ferguson Effect as hypothesized by the previous literature.”

5. Hot-spot policing involves techniques developed to identify and address significant spatial clusters of crime. These methods include, but are not limited to, problem-oriented policing, increased patrol, and foot patrol.

6. New York City was used to test the Ferguson effect for two reasons. First, the New York City Police department provides data necessary for testing the Ferguson effect (i.e., available data). Second, New York City was also impacted not just by the death of Michael Brown, but also the death of Eric Garner in 2014. As a result, the city has become a hub for protest against police bias and brutality.

7. Historical New York City crime data was provided by the New York Police Department. The data was retrieved from http://www1.nyc.gov/site/nypd/stats/crime-statistics/historical.page .

8. NYPD’s Stop, question, and frisk data were retrieved from https://www1.nyc.gov/site/nypd/stats/reports-analysis/stopfrisk.page.

9. See Baron and Kenny (1986).

10. See Bauer, Preacher, and Gil (2006) and Kenny, Korchmaros, and Bolger (2003) for conceptual and methodological guidelines in multilevel mediation analysis.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Joel A. Capellan

Joel A. Capellan is an assistant professor in the Law and Justice Studies department at Rowan University. Capellan specializes in statistics and spatial analysis. He has conducted and published research on state-sponsored repression, segregation, lone wolf terrorism, policing bias, and criminological theories. Currently, he is devoting most of his attention to the study of mass public shootings.

Rachel Lautenschlager

Rachel Lautenschlager is a doctoral candidate in sociology concentrating in the areas of criminology and race and ethnic relations. Her research explores how law enforcement and other components of the criminal justice system vary across neighborhoods, and the ways that this results in differential outcomes across racial and ethnic groups.

Jason R. Silva

Jason R. Silva is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Sociology and Criminal Justice at William Paterson University. His research examines media and crime, mass shootings, school violence, and terrorism. Recent publications have appeared in Aggression and Violent Behavior, Criminal Justice Policy Review, International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, and Victims & Offenders.