Time-to-first shooting: a complementary measure to time-to-crime

ABSTRACT

This study identifies the challenges and benefits of leveraging data systems managed by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives toward calculating time-to-first shooting (TTFS), a more accurate firearm trafficking indicator than time-to-crime (TTC). In doing so, this study highlights the potential advantages of incorporating TTFS as a standard practice in firearm trafficking investigations. Essential datasets containing records from the National Integrated Ballistic Information Network (NIBIN) and National Tracing Center are first linked. Descriptive statistics on TTFS and TTC are then provided for two subsets of recovered crime guns and considered relative to firearm trafficking benchmarks. As compared to TTC, TTFS identifies more potential illegal firearm diversions. Moreover, recovered crime guns for which TTFS can be calculated tend to have longer criminal use histories, indicating a lower likelihood of illegal diversion. Failure to calculate TTFS for recovered crime guns represents a missed opportunity to identify and disrupt firearm traffickers and illegal firearm markets that contribute to violent crime. Ultimately, the alignment and consolidation of NIBIN and firearm trace records in the NIBIN Enforcement Support System is needed to support comprehensive assessments of crime guns.

KEYWORDS:

• NIBIN
• firearm trafficking
• time-to-first shooting

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1. To emphasize, a firearm’s most recent retail purchase date is only determined through information available within ATF’s databases.

2. These values are approximations and are subject to change based on developments that may arise during criminal investigations.

3. Duplicate entries were identified and dropped. Data from NESS was provided by DPD and regularly collected to inform the operations of the Detroit CGIC and its evaluation.

4. Firearm trace information was provided by DPD and regularly collected to inform the operations of the Detroit CGIC and its evaluation.

5. While the Paired Sign Test is often used to compare medians of two distributions, its use in this way assumes that the median of the differences is equivalent to the difference of the medians (Hutson and Han 2022).

6. 80 Del. Laws, c. 426, § 1.

7. 720 ILCS 5/24–8

8. NRS 202.253.

9. N.J. State § 52:17B–9.18 and N.J. State § 52:17B–9.19

10. N.Y. § 230.

11. H 5912 – State of Rhode Island.

Additional information

Funding

This research received support through the 2021 Postdoctoral Research Fellowship Award granted by the National Collaborative on Gun Violence Research.

Notes on contributors

Alaina De Biasi

Alaina De Biasi is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice at Wayne State University located in Detroit, Michigan. Her research interests include investigating the causes and consequences of firearm violence, leveraging state and federal data systems to explore illicit firearm markets and enhance crime gun intelligence, evaluating the effectiveness of violence prevention initiatives, conducting community-engaged research, and exploring the geography of crime.