Pathways to State Failure

Abstract

Attempts to forecast or remedy state failure would benefit from a clearer view of the multiple pathways that can lead states to fail. This paper delineates five pathways: escalating ethnic conflicts, state predation, regional guerrilla rebellion, democratic collapse, and succession/reform crises in authoritarian states. Each of these five pathways involves changes in the legitimacy and effectiveness of regimes; state failures follow upon the loss of both legitimacy and effectiveness. Examples are provided and guidelines are offered for efforts to avert failure in fragile states.

Keywords:

• state failure
• reconstruction
• stabilization
• democracy
• ethnic conflict

The author thanks the IRIS research center at the University of Maryland, which led the project from which this paper is derived. It, however, has no responsibility for the specific contents of this paper.