Recidivism and the Propensity to Forgo Parole Release

Abstract

This study investigates whether inmates who are unconditionally released at the end of their sentence because they opt out of the parole process could potentially benefit from community supervision. This research was conducted in response to a recently passed law in the state of New Jersey that targets this group for a mandatory six-month term of parole. The study uses propensity scores to match this group to discretionarily released parolees in order to simulate random assignment. Results indicate that those who voluntarily forgo parole consideration are significantly less successful after release according to several measures of recidivism, including rearrests, reconvictions, and community tenure. However, between-group differences are small. Findings suggest that some form of supervision may be beneficial for this group, but likely not in the fashion that is explicated in the current law.

Keywords:

• parole
• voluntary max out
• recidivism
• propensity score