The Prediction of Young Homicide and Violent Offenders

Abstract

Aim was to investigate a range of potentially modifiable risk factors for boys in late childhood for later violence and homicide convictions. Boys from the Pittsburgh Youth Study (N = 1,517) were measured through self-reports and official records in late childhood (ages 11–13) on a large number of potentially modifiable risk factors, and were followed up in juvenile and adult criminal records in terms of violence and homicide. Predictors of conviction for homicide largely overlapped with predictors of conviction for violence. Twenty three out of 28 possible risk factors significantly predicted later violence convictions. Regression analysis identified four significant modifiable risk factors in late childhood for any violent offenders: physical abuse, parental stress, bad friends and low school motivation. The higher the number of early risk factors, the higher the probability of later conviction for violent offenses including homicide. The discussion focus on single-, and multi-modal interventions in late childhood to reduce later violence and possibly homicide.

Keywords:

• homicide
• violence
• offender
• modifiable risk factor
• intervention

Acknowledgments

Dr Ahonen is grateful to the Swedish National Research Council [Vetenskapsrådet] for supporting her work. The authors are indebted to David P. Farrington and Magda Stouthamer-Loeber for their collaboration on the Pittsburgh Youth Study over many years. We are grateful to Jennifer Wilson for checking the references and to the anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments on this manuscript.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Lia Ahonen

Lia Ahonen, PhD, is Visiting Research Fellow at the Life History Studies Program, Department of Psychiatry, University of Pittsburgh, PA, USA and Assistant Professor in Criminology at Örebro University, Sweden. Her research interests are juvenile delinquency and antisocial behavior, violence, mental health problems, juvenile justice organizations, corrections and policy issues.

Rolf Loeber

Rolf Loeber, PhD, is Distinguished University Professor of Psychiatry, and Professor of Psychology, and Epidemiology at the University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. He is Director of the Life History Program and is the initiator of two large longitudinal studies, the Pittsburgh Youth Study, and the Pittsburgh Girls Study. He has published widely in the fields of juvenile antisocial behavior and delinquency, substance use, and mental health problems. He is an elected member of the Koninklijke Academie van Wetenschappen (Royal Academy of Sciences) in the Netherlands, and the Royal Irish Academy in Ireland.

Dustin Pardini

Dustin Pardini, PhD Dr Dustin Pardini’s research involves examining the precursors and outcomes associated with the development of antisocial (e.g. violence, theft) and substance using behaviors from childhood to adulthood, as well as evaluating the impact that early psychosocial interventions can have on these problems.