Five-County Validation of the Indiana Risk Assessment System – Pretrial Assessment Tool (IRAS-PAT) using a Local Validation Approach

Abstract

Local jurisdictions are increasingly using pretrial risk assessment instruments to assess risk of pretrial misconduct and inform release decisions. We adopted a local validation approach to examine the predictive validity of Indiana Risk Assessment System – Pretrial Assessment Tool (IRAS-PAT) assessments in 3,739 unique pretrial defendants across five Indiana counties. Jail, court, and pretrial risk assessment records were matched within each jurisdiction to examine pretrial misconduct outcomes (i.e., any arrest, any new arrest, and any failure to appear) during the case processing period. Area Under the Curve (AUC) estimates showed good-to-excellent levels of predictive accuracy for total scores for all outcomes (AUC Range: 0.67-0.72). Multivariable models showed defendants assessed at High (OR Range: 5.42-8.62) and Moderate (OR Range: 2.56-3.08) risk had higher rates of pretrial misconduct relative to those assessed at Low risk. Findings provide strong evidence for the predictive accuracy of IRAS-PAT assessments overall, though some item-level considerations are noted.

Keywords:

• pretrial risk assessment
• predictive validity
• local validation
• pretrial misconduct

Disclosure statement

This work was funded by the Indiana Office of Court Services. All study authors received funding to complete this work. The findings and conclusions expressed herein are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views or opinions of the Indiana Office of Court Services or the State of Indiana.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Evan M. Lowder

Evan M. Lowder, E. M. Lowder is an assistant professor in the Department of Criminology, Law and Society at George Mason University. Her research interests include strategies to reduce offending and improve behavioral health outcomes among justice-involved adults, with special focus on risk assessment and diversion programs. Her research has been published in outlets including Law and Human Behavior, Criminal Justice and Behavior, Psychiatric Services, and the American Journal of Public Health.

Spencer G. Lawson

Spencer G. Lawson, S. G. Lawson is a doctoral student in the School of Criminal Justice at Michigan State University. His community-based research focuses broadly on justice-involved behavioral health populations and police safety and wellness, with other interests spanning topics such as organizational justice and pretrial risk assessments. His recent work has appeared in Criminology, Police Quarterly, Corrections: Policy, Practice and Research, and the Journal for Advancing Justice.

Eric Grommon

Eric Grommon, E. Grommon is an associate professor in the Paul H. O’Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs at IUPUI. His research interests include corrections, offender reentry, and the rigorous evaluation of justice system programs, policies, and operations. His research has been published in outlets including Journal of Experimental Criminology, Journal of Quantitative Criminology, Justice Quarterly, and Criminology & Public Policy.

Brad R. Ray

Brad R. Ray, B. R. Ray is an associate professor at the Wayne State University School of Social Work and Director of the Center for Behavioral Health and Justice. He is a community-engaged researcher whose work focuses on persons with mental health and substance use disorders, particularly where these populations intersect with the criminal legal systems. His work has been published in outlets including Addiction, Criminal Justice and Behavior, Behavioral Sciences & the Law, and the American Journal of Public Health.