Measuring the scope of social problems: Apparent inconsistencies across estimates of family abductions

Statistics—estimates, official statistics, and statistical research—play a central role in constructing social problems. Claimsmakers' estimates typically exaggerate the extent of these problems; research statistics are considered more accurate. Yet the National Incidence Studies of Missing, Abducted, Runaway, and Thrownaway Children (NISMART) produced an estimate for family abductions far higher than the figure offered by missing-children activists. Extrapolations for family abductions based on official statistics from eight statewide missing-children clearinghouses are much lower than the NISMART estimate. This paper seeks to explain this anomaly. NISMART's methods defined family abductions broadly, thereby producing a large figure, while police probably underreport cases to the state clearinghouses.