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Abstract
A Markov chain model for rainfall occurrences combined with a log‐normal probabilistic model for rainfall depths are used in estimating monthly rainfall frequency curves during the irrigation period of the Aliakmon River Basin in northwestern Greece. The developed curves provide information on the rainfall quantity to be expected during a given time period within a certain month and with an accepted level of risk. The information is valuable for the optimum design and operation of various water resource systems especially of those which regulate and distribute irrigation water in space and time. The frequency curves can operate on a monthly or seasonal basis, are applicable to predictions of rainfall quantities within any time period suitable for water resources design and operational purposes, and their estimation procedure is free of individual storm analyses etc. Thus, they appear to be unique in solving design and operational water resource problems concerning seasonal rainfall expectations and their risks.