Environmental impacts of climate change and water development in the Indus delta region

Abstract

The prospect of global warming raises particular concern in delta regions, many of which are already experiencing severe environmental strain as the result of human activity. This paper considers the potential environmental effects of climatic change and water development in the delta region of Pakistan's Indus River Basin. The impact assessment is conducted using regional output from a river basin simulation model of the Indus Basin. Potential changes in river inflows to the delta, canal diversions and groundwater balance are evaluated under a range of climate change and water development scenarios. The paper also explores possible environmental impacts not included in the modelled evaluation, and discusses policy implications of the assessment results.