Polling ‘misses’ – can Q-methodology help? A case study of the Seanad referendum

ABSTRACT

Accurate information on public opinion is a necessary condition for the effective functioning of democracies. For Lasswell, the open interplay of public opinion with policy is the ‘distinguishing mark of popular rule’ [Lasswell, H. D. (1941). Democracy through public opinion. Menasha, WI: Banta]. Yet, despite its importance, there is a distinct gap in methods and tools to understand large volumes of public opinion statements on any issue. The 2013 referendum in Ireland on the abolition of the Seanad (Senate) was a prominent example of this gap. Opinion polls were perceived as misleading in suggesting that the referendum was going to pass. Aiming to address opinion noise, and the polarity suggested by opinion polls, we conducted an online study of subjectivity in the week before polling. Using Q-methodology and the stream of public opinion generated during the campaign, we identified three main perspectives on the issue of Seanad abolition. One perspective was in favour of abolition, two opposed the proposal. We conclude that Q-methodology could be used to support opinion polling and political communication by providing a supporting context of the range of social perspectives on the issue at hand.

KEYWORDS:

• Public opinion
• Seanad referendum
• Q-methodology
• polling

Acknowledgements

We would like to extend a special thanks to referees of this paper for their detailed and helpful comments.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

1. Quoted in Perrin and McFarland (2011).

2. Speech by An Taoiseach Enda Kenny TD at Government announcement of proposals for the Thirty-second Amendment of the Constitution (Abolition of Seanad Éireann) Bill 2013 (Merrionstreet, i.e. 5th June 2013).

3. Open the Seanad don’t close it – speech by Michael McDowell SC http://lfsr.ie/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Paper-by-Michael-McDowell-S.C.pdf

4. Post-referendum research supported the various accounts of ballot paper confusion that emerged on the referendum day (Referendum Commission, 2013).

5. Statement 24 (Appendix).

6. Q is a small sample methodology focused on investigating subjectivity. Once perspectives are identified, the study can be repeated with a large sample of participants, without affecting the underlying structure (see Brown, 1980).

7. FlashQ online q-sorting software package.

8. Eigenvalues of 10.22, 2.76 and 1.30, respectively.

9. F denotes the identified ‘factor’ corresponding to each interpreted social perspective. F1 = Reform; F2 = Abolish; F3 = Mixed.