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ABSTRACT
Local and European elections have been held simultaneously since 1999. These offer an interesting context to look at the importance of party, both across each pair of elections and across these elections and future voting intentions. Analysis of behaviour in these elections suggests the influence of party is far from dominant. Exit polls and the 2002-7 Irish National election Study show around half of all voters supporting different parties in the two elections, and in some cases expressing vote intentions for the next general election that is different again. The elections of 2019 mark a low point in such cohesion.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.
Notes on contributor
Michael Marsh is Emeritus Professor of Political Science in Trinity College Dublin.
Notes
1. Assessments of individual volatility are usually based on a recall of past vote, which is biased against change. One advantage of what follows is that it is not based on such questions.
2. It should be said that the question on future vote intention is asked after those on European and local votes, sometimes well after.
3. The INES 2002–7 panel study allows us to see how people did vote at the general election three years later. The figures are similar to those for 2004 voting intention: 20, 14, 18 and 48. The main difference is that many more people fvoted for a party they did not support in 2004. This reflects the considerable uptunr if Fianna Fáil support in 2007 relative to 2004.