Election results and coalition possibilities in Ireland

Abstract

Election results make political sense only in terms of the government formation possibilities they imply. Using a new model of government formation, this paper explores the different coalition possibilities implied by different potential election results in Ireland. This analysis provides a more rigorous theoretical foundation for the view that, given the current policy configuration of the Irish party system or something reasonably like it, Fianna Fáil can remain a dominant party of government in Ireland more or less regardless of the precise outcomes of elections.