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Abstract
This paper uses unpublished data from the 1981 census internal migration matrix tapes, overseas–born duration of residence statistics and vital statistics to develop a detailed analysis of the components of population change in LGAs across Sydney between 1976–81. An intercorrelation analysis of the various components aids interpretation of change, and in addition, the conceptual basis of a model of population diversity in forecasting population diversity is discussed, with an extension using 1986 census data, using Fairfield municipality as a case study. The analysis reveals problems involved in cohort component population projection at the small area level, and contributes to our understanding of the planning significance of local population change.