Wars for Oil, Wars by Oil: Understanding Petro-Autocracy and the ‘New’ Imperialism

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Notes

1 Gar Smith, “Afghanistan: It’s about Oil,” Earth Island Journal, https://www.earthisland.org/journal/index.php/magazine/entry/afghanistan_its_about_oil/; Seth Stevenson, “Pipe Dreams: The Origins of the ‘Bombing-Afghanistan-for-Oil-Pipelines’ Theory” Slate.com, December 6, 2001, https://web.archive.org/web/20080804165952/http://www.slate.com/?id=2059487

2 While much has been made in some sectors – both Leftist (e.g. “Mineral Riches in Afghanistan Spur Imperialist Grab” Worker’s World, October 17, 2011, https://www.workers.org/2011/world/afghanistain_1020/) and Rightist (e.g. “Afghanistan’s Rare Earth Element Bonanza” Fraser Institute https://www.fraserinstitute.org/article/afghanistans-rare-earth-element-bonanza) - about Afghanistan as a potential source of rare earth minerals and lithium, responsible reporting has shown that these claims have been poorly calculated and dramatically inflated (see “How Afghanistan’s $1 Trillion Mining Wealth Sold the War” Mining[dot]com, August 27, 2021, https://www.mining.com/how-afghanistans-1-trillion-mining-wealth-sold-the-war/). The only significant mining investment thus far has been a Chinese lithium mine which has been worth less than 30% original estimations ($808 million versus $2.83 billion; see “Order of the Board of Jiangxi Copper Co, Ltd”, May 27, 2008, https://www.mining.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Jiangxi-press-release-may-2008-mes-anyak.pdf). In 2020, the only major mineral export was in gold, worth $542 million, almost entirely exported to the UAE (“Country Profile: Afghanistan” Observatory of Economic Complexity, ND, https://oec.world/en/profile/country/afg). It is also worth noting that the much-vaunted “$1 trillion” in minerals in Afghanistan was not discovered until three years after the US invasion and not widely known of for a decade and could not have been a motivation for conquest.

“Petroleum” here is used as shorthand for both liquid hydrocarbons and “natural gas.” See P. G. McLeroy, Gordon I. Atwater, and Joseph P. Riva, "petroleum." Encyclopedia Britannica, March 7, 2022. https://www.britannica.com/science/petroleum.

3 Sara Flounders, “US War on Russia: A Stampede off a cliff” Worker’s World, February 22, 2022, https://www.workers.org/2022/02/61961/; “PSL Statement on Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine,” Liberation News, February 24, 2022, https://www.liberationnews.org/psl-statement-on-russias-military-intervention-in-ukraine/; “NATO/EU Aggression Provokes War in Ukraine,” The Spartacist, February 27, 2022, https://www.icl-fi.org/english/esp/index.html

4 Bill McKibben, “This is how we defeat Putin and other petrostate autocrats” The Guardian, February 25, 2022https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/25/this-is-how-we-defeat-putin-and-other-petrostate-autocrats

5 Minqi Li “China: Imperialism or Semi-Periphery” Monthly Review, July 1, 2021, https://monthlyreview.org/2021/07/01/china-imperialism-or-semi-periphery/

6 Chris Kiyaseh “China’s Economic Imperialism,” The Medium, September 27, 2020, https://medium.com/reformermag/chinas-economic-imperialism-477ed22cdd9e

7 Immanuel Wallerstein, World-Systems Analysis: An Introduction (Durham: Duke University Press, 2004), 23.

8 Gerasimos Tsourapas, “Labor Migrants as Political Leverage: Migration Interdependence and Coercion in the Mediterranean” International Studies Quarterly 62, no 2, June 2018: 383–395, https://academic.oup.com/isq/article/62/2/383/4986742

9 Anar K Ahmadov “Oil, Democracy and Context: A Meta-Analysis” Comparative Political Studies 47, no 9 (2014): 1238-1267, https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414013495358

10 Joseph Wright, Erica Frantz and Barbara Geddes “Oil and Autocratic Regime Survival” The British Journal of Political Science 45, no 2 (April 2015): 287–306 https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/british-journal-of-political-science/article/abs/oil-and-autocratic-regime-survival/98FF2EF2C56820C9E9C9FB60E63D3F22

11 Kristian Petrov “The Concept of Transition in Transition” Baltic Worlds 1 (April 2014): 29–41, https://balticworlds.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/BW-Transitology-1-2014.pdf

12 Richard Howson and Kylie Smith, “Hegemony and the Operation of Consensus and Coercion,” Hegemony: Studies in Consensus and Coercion (New York: Routledge, 2008).

13 Roger Hosein, “Resource Curse and Dutch Disease” Oil and Gas in Trinidad and Tobago, (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2021): 87–114.

14 Foued Saadaoui and Rafik Jbir “Petroleum endowment and economic growth: examination of the resource curse phenomenon” Energy Sources 16, no 7 (May 2021): 603–616, https://doi.org/10.1080/15567249.2021.1928332

15 Sarvar Gurbanov and Edward Merkel, “Avoiding the Dutch Disease: A Comparative Study of Three Successful Countries” The Journal of Qafqaz University (December 2012), https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2190232

16 Geoff Eley, “Defining Social Imperialism: Use and Abuse of an Idea” Social History 1, No. 3 (October 1976): 265-290, https://doi.org/10.1080/03071027608567379

17 Jok Madut Jok, War and Slavery in Sudan (Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press 2010).

18 A. Thomas Grove, and Douglas Henry Jones, "Chad." Encyclopedia Britannica, December 9, 2021. https://www.britannica.com/place/Chad.

19 “ Chad: Between the Oil Curse and a Family Feud,” Open Central Africa, May 2020, https://openingcentralafrica.com/en/2020/05/25/chad-between-the-oil-curse-and-a-family-feud/?fbclid=IwAR2mJSotaRbD2jzqdC5-l4UIZek0lRMmvv2g1aOuCAk1ccXfblO84DC56ME

20 “Petronas disputes Chad’s tax claims,” Al Jazeera, August 30, 2006, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2006/8/30/petronas-disputes-chads-tax-claims

21 Xan Rice “World Bank cancels pipeline deal with Chad after revenues misspent,” The Guardian, September 11, 2008, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/sep/12/worldbank.oil

22 “Overview of Corruption and Anti-Corruption in Chad,” Transparency International, https://knowledgehub.transparency.org/helpdesk/overview-of-corruption-and-anti-corruption-in-chad

23 Alexandre Benalla, “Pour Tout l’or du Tchad,” Libération January 21 2019 https://www.liberation.fr/debats/2019/01/21/alexandre-benalla-pour-tout-l-or-du-tchad_1704358/

24 Stephen Kurczy “Top 10 military spending nations: oil countries post biggest jumps this decade,” The Christian Science Monitor, June 3, 2010,https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Global-News/2010/0603/Top-10-military-spending-nations-oil-countries-post-biggest-jumps-this-decade

25 “Mali says Chad to send 1,000 additional troops as France backs off,” Reuters December 18 2021, https://www.voanews.com/a/mali-says-chad-to-send-1-000-additional-troops-as-france-backs-off/6360131.html

26 John Irish and Tangi Salaun “With eye on Islamist fight, France backs Chad military takeover,” Reuters, April 22, 2021, https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/france-defends-chad-military-takeover-needed-ensure-stability-2021-04-22/

27 “Who are Chad’s FACT rebels and what are their goals?,” Al Jazeera, April 21, 2021, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/21/who-are-chads-fact-rebels-and-what-are-their-goals

28 “Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, power behind the throne,” BBC, October 6, 2020, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-40354415

29 “Saudi Arabia” Encyclopedia Britannica, https://www.britannica.com/place/Saudi-Arabia

30 Guido Steinberg, “Leading the Counter-Revolution: Saudi Arabia and the Arab Spring,” for SWP Research Papers, June 7, 2014, https://www.swp-berlin.org/publications/products/research_papers/2014_RP07_sbg.pdf

31 Amy Austin Holmes, “The Military Intervention that the World Forgot,” Al Jazeera, Mar 29, 2014,. http://america.aljazeera.com/opinions/2014/3/bahrain-uprisinginterventionsaudiarabiaemirates.html

32 Mariam Karouny, “Saudi edges Qatar to control Syrian rebel support,” Reuters May 31, 2013, https://agsiw.org/strategic-interests-drive-gulf-policy-toward-syria/

33 Lawrence Marzouk et al “Croatia Profits from Syria’s Gruesome War,” Balkan Insight, February 21, 2017, https://balkaninsight.com/2017/02/21/croatia-profits-from-syria-s-gruesome-war-02-20-2017/

34 Michael Winter, “Report: Saudis Sent Death Row Inmates to Fight in Syria,” USA Today, January 21, 2013, https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2013/01/21/saudi-inmates-fight-syria-commute-death-sentences/1852629/

35 Sima Aldardari “Strategic Interests Drive Gulf Policy Towards Syria,” Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington blog, December 29, 2020, https://agsiw.org/strategic-interests-drive-gulf-policy-toward-syria/

36 Bernie Sanders and Ro Khanna “Saudi warplanes carpet-bomb Yemen with US Help. This must end,” The Guardian, December 3, 2021, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/03/saudi-warplanes-carpet-bomb-yemen-with-us-help-this-must-end; “Millions in Yemen ‘a step away from starvation’” UN News, September 22, 2021, https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/09/1100782

37 “Djibouti agrees to a Saudi military base on its territory,” Al Arabiya English, September 4, 2016, https://english.alarabiya.net/News/gulf/2016/12/04/Djibouti-agrees-to-a-Saudi-military-base-on-its-territory ; “Saudis establish military base in Yemen nature reserve,” MEMO: Middle East Monitor, October 6 2020, https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20201006-saudis-establish-military-base-in-yemen-nature-reserve/

38 “Tribes in Yemen’s Mahrah province fear Saudi annexation,” MEMO: Middle East Monitor, February 20, 2020, https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20200220-tribes-in-yemens-mahrah-province-fear-saudi-annexation/

39 Patrick Wintour, “Qatar given ten days to meet 13 sweeping demands by Saudi Arabia,” The Guardian, June 23, 2017, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/23/close-al-jazeera-saudi-arabia-issues-qatar-with-13-demands-to-end-blockade

40 Michael Ellmer, “Libyan Civil War: Saudi Arabia and UAE Involvement,” Grey Dynamics, April 15, 2021, https://www.greydynamics.com/libyan-civil-war-saudi-arabia-uae-involvement/

41 Carlyle Murphy, “As Egypt targets Muslim Brotherhood, Saudi Arabia follows suit,” GlobalPost, July 8, 2014, https://theworld.org/stories/2014-07-08/egypt-targets-muslim-brotherhood-saudi-arabia-follows-suit

42 Federica Saini Fasanotti “The Biden Administration inherits a rapidly deteriorating situation in Libya,” Brookings, January 19, 2021, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2021/01/19/the-biden-administration-inherits-a-rapidly-deteriorating-libya/

43 “Azerbaijan the events of 2019,” Human Rights Watch, https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2020/country-chapters/azerbaijan#

44 Kendrick Foster, “Armenia’s Velvet Revolution: Lessons from the Caucuses,” Harvard International Review, May 29, 2019, https://hir.harvard.edu/armenias-velvet-revolution/

45 Katherine Berjikian, “Protestors storm Armenian Parliament hours after peace deal signed,” CGTN, November 11, 2020, https://newseu.cgtn.com/news/2020-11-11/Protesters-storm-Armenian-parliament-hours-after-peace-deal-signed--Vjj0iZXTWw/index.html

46 Matthew Kupfer, “Armenia: The Highway Leads to Karabakh, But the Money Comes from California,” Eurasianet, September 6, 2017, https://eurasianet.org/armenia-the-highway-leads-to-karabakh-but-the-money-comes-from-california

47 Natalia Konarzewska, “Azerbaijan’s Economy Takes a Double Blow,” CACIAnalyst, June 16, 2020, https://www.cacianalyst.org/publications/analytical-articles/item/13626-azerbaijans-economy-takes-a-double-blow.html

48 Vusal Khalilov, et al., “Anti-War Statement of Azerbaijani Youth” LeftEast, September 30, 2020, https://lefteast.org/anti-war-statement-of-azerbaijani-leftist-youth/

49 David B. Boyajian, “Meghri: The Pan-Turkish Superhighway and other Wrong Turns,” Asbarez, May 19, 2001, https://asbarez.com/meghri-the-pan-turkish-superhighway-and-other-wrong-turns/?fbclid=IwAR3O58s-hwfI_gqgD7yrZ11lSHkqUOo7wpvfgu2KqsLGt-JxXFMNJ88Hh10

50 “Azerbaijan’s Dark Island: Human Rights Violations in Nakhchivean,” Norwegian Helsinki Committee, January 29, 2010, https://www.nhc.no/en/azerbaijans-dark-island-human-rights-violations-in-nakhchivan/

51 “Russian Troops Demarcate Part Of Georgian Oil Pipeline,” RFE/RL Georgian Service, July 14, 2015, https://www.rferl.org/a/russian-troops-demarcate-georgian-oil-pipeline/27126985.html

52 Garen Nazarian, “The Meghri Corridor: A Viable Transport Link or Geopolitical Noose?,” EVN Report, March 22, 2021, https://evnreport.com/politics/the-meghri-corridor-a-viable-transport-link-or-geopolitical-noose/?fbclid=IwAR0a3DrkYjugtuy3Q9D_-98Ay3ooDLzjmwnxTiujC2UwoWSXsFY7mdLVhZE

53 Michael McFaul, “Russia’s Road to Autocracy,” Journal of Democracy 32, no 4 (October 2021): 11–26, https://muse.jhu.edu/article/815934

54 Mitchell Yates, “How Putin Made Russia’s Military into a Modern, Lethal Fighting Force,” The National Interest, February 25, 2016, https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/how-putin-made-russias-military-modern-lethal-fighting-force-15315

55 Pjotr Sauer, “Ukraine Gives Medal to Soldier Who Told Russian Officer to ‘Go Fuck Yourself,’” The Guardian, March 29, 2022, sec. World news, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/29/ukrainian-soldier-russian-warship-medal-snake-island.

56 Andrew D’Anieri and Doug Klain “Could Snake Island be the next hot spot in Vladimir Putin’s Ukraine War?,” The Atlantic Council, Augugst 31, 2021, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/could-snake-island-be-the-next-hot-spot-in-vladimir-putins-ukraine-war/

57 Brzeziński, Zbigniew, Strategic Vision: America and the Crisis of Global Power (New York: Basic Books, 2012), 95

58 “Russian manufacturing growth picks up,” BBC, April 1, 2011, https://www.bbc.com/news/business-12930965

59 “Country Profile: Russia,” Observatory of Economic Complexity, https://oec.world/en/profile/country/rus/

60 “Bilateral Profile: Russia-Belarus,” Observatory of Economic Complexity, https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-country/blr/partner/rus

61 “Bilateral Profile: Russia-Kazakhstan,” Observatory of Economic Complexity, https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-country/rus/partner/kaz

62 “Bilateral Profile: Russia-China,” Observatory of Economic Complexity, https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-country/chn/partner/rus; “Bilateral Profile: Russia-Germany,” Observatory of Economic Complexity, https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-country/deu/partner/rus

63 Richard Connolly and Philip Hanson, “Import Substitution and Economic Sovereignty in Russia” Chatham House, 2016, https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/publications/research/2016-06-09-import-substitution-russia-connolly-hanson.pdf; Anna Bagirova, Oskana Shubat and Nina Ilysheva, “Demographic policy in Russia: Will new measures be effective?” Proceedings of the 17^th European Conference on Management Leadership and Governance (London: Academic Conferences International Limited, 2021)

64 Daniel Workman, “Wheat Exports by Country,” World’s Top Exports, https://www.worldstopexports.com/wheat-exports-country/

65 Paul Benjamin Osterlund “MENA faces a crisis as world’s key wheat producers are at war,” Al Jazeera, March 1, 2022, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/1/mena-region-faces-crisis-as-worlds-key-wheat-producers-at-war

66 Desmond Lachman, “Russia is Ready for a Long Economic Fight,” Barron’s, February 23, 2022, https://www.barrons.com/articles/russia-is-ready-for-a-long-economic-fight-51645648844

67 “Russia’s Gold Reserves Hit Five Year High,” Moscow Times, April 9, 2019, https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/04/09/russias-gold-reserves-hit-five-year-high-a65147

68 “Russia’s gold and FX reserves hit record high after IMF transfer,” Reuters, September 2, 2021, https://www.reuters.com/article/russia-reserves/russias-gold-and-fx-reserves-hit-record-high-after-imf-transfer-idUSL1N2Q416S

69 Jack Farchy and Roula Khalaf, “Gold key to financing Gaddafi struggle,” The Financial Times, March 21, 2011, https://www.ft.com/content/588ce75a-53e4-11e0-8bd7-00144feab49a

70 Chris Devonshire-Ellis, “SPFS – Russia’s Alternative To SWIFT,” Russia Briefing, December 15 2021, https://www.russia-briefing.com/news/spfs-russia-s-alternative-to-swift.html/

71 Note: The author has been a dues-paying member of the DSA since 2018 and is an active member of the San Antonio chapter.

72 National Political Committee, “On Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine,” Democratic Socialists of America, February 26, 2022, https://www.dsausa.org/statements/on-russias-invasion-of-ukraine/

73 “Zelensky says Ukraine prepared to discuss neutrality in peace talks,” BBC, March 28, 2022, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60901024

74 Eric Nazarian, “We are alone,” Armenian Weekly, October 20, 2020, https://armenianweekly.com/2020/10/20/we-are-alone/; Ani Mejlumyan, “Armenians feel they are facing their fight alone,” Eurasianet, October 10, 2020, https://eurasianet.org/armenians-feel-they-are-facing-their-fight-alone; Tatev Hovhannisyan, “Where was the outpouring of empathy when my country was at war?,” OpenDemocracy, February 24, 2022, https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/ukraine-russia-war-armenia-azerbaijan-nagorno-karabakh-where-was-empathy/

75 Vusal Khalilov et al., “Anti-War Statement of Azerbaijani Youth,” LeftEast, September 30, 2020, https://lefteast.org/anti-war-statement-of-azerbaijani-leftist-youth/

76 Evan Sandlin, “Dereliction of Duty? The Left and the Syrian Civil War,” LA Review of Books, October 30, 2016, https://lareviewofbooks.org/article/dereliction-duty-left-syrian-civil-war/

77 James Bloodworth, “Too many on the Left have swallowed Putin’s propaganda on Ukraine,” The New Statesman, February 8, 2022, https://www.newstatesman.com/international-politics/geopolitics/2022/02/too-many-on-the-left-have-swallowed-putins-propaganda-on-ukraine

78 Muhammad Sahimi, “America’s Misguided Left,” Frontline, July 25, 2009, https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2009/07/americas-misguided-left.html

79 Volodymyr Artiukh, “US-plaining is not enough. To the Western Left, on your and our mistakes,” LeftEast, March 2, 2022, https://lefteast.org/us-plaining-is-not-enough-to-the-western-left-on-your-and-our-mistakes/?fbclid=IwAR0FkHqbtl4lbIeGs4gX9F7UqK_7npsMIca1hzELh34N219CRJPfH9-riNA