WHEN AND WHY DO HEDGEHOGS AND FOXES DIFFER?

Abstract

Philip E. Tetlock's finding that "hedgehog" experts (those with one big theory) are worse predictors than "foxes" (those with multiple, less comprehensive theories) offers fertile ground for future research. Are experts as likely to exhibit hedgehog- or fox-like tendencies in areas that call for explanatory, diagnostic, and skill-based expertise-as they did when Tetlock called on experts to make predictions? Do particular domains of expertise curtail or encourage different styles of expertise? Can we trace these different styles to childhood? Finally, can we nudge hedgehogs to be more like foxes? Current research can only grope at the answers to these questions, but they are essential to gauging the health of expert political judgment.

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Notes on contributors

Frank C. Keil

Frank C. Keil is the author, inter alia, of Concepts, Kinds, and Cognitive Development (MIT, 1989). This paper, and some of the research it describes, was prepared with the support of NIH Grant R-37- HD023922