An Evaluation of the Kriging Method to Predict 7-h Seasonal Mean Ozone Concentrations for Estimating Crop Losses

Abstract

Using kriging, a statistical technique, the National Crop Loss Assessment Network (NCLAN) program estimated growing season 5-month (May-September) ambient 7-h mean O₃ concentrations for each of the major crop growing areas of the United States for 1978-1982. The O₃ estimates were used to predict economic benefits anticipated by lowering O₃ levels in the United States. This paper reviews NCLAN’s use of kriging to estimate 7-h seasonal mean O₃ concentrations for crop growing regions. Although the original kriging program used by NCLAN incorrectly calculated the diagonal elements of the kriging equations, this omission did not result in significant errors in the predicted estimates. Most of the data used in estimating the 7-h seasonal values were obtained from urban areas; the use of these data tended to underestimate the 7-h seasonal O₃ concentrations in rural areas. It is recommended that only O₃ data that are representative of agricultural areas and have been collected under accepted quality assurance programs be used In future kriging efforts.