The Influence of Internal Migration on Exposure to Extreme Weather Events in Mexico

ABSTRACT

Between 2005 and 2010, 6.3 million migrants (approximately 6% of the population) moved domestically within Mexico. These shifts have potential implications for exposure to natural disasters. To examine this relationship, we use census microdata in conjunction with information on natural disaster events. The populations exposed to extreme weather events are first calculated based on observed disasters and demographic change between 2005 and 2010. This is compared to a hypothetical scenario with no migration between 2005 and 2010. The results presented in this research note demonstrate that while migration has slightly decreased overall exposure within Mexico, this influence is highly localized in select areas, with internal migration increasing exposure in key urban destinations. This highlights the need to better understand the interacting roles of household-scale migratory decision making and economic/urban growth policy in climate change mitigation, and provides guidance on geographic regions to target for more detailed analysis.

KEYWORDS:

• Climate change
• environment
• exposure
• Mexico
• migration
• natural disasters
• vulnerability